WGC CA Betting: Bank of Tiger only offering odds-on returns, but is he still value?

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 18 March 2008 / Leave a Comment

The great man is [1.99] for victory this week and while he's the (very) likely winner, that's still a lay for Paul Krishnamurty

As long as Tiger Woods continued in the rich vein of form he's shown since last August, this moment was inevitable. Layers, bruised and battered after seven consecutive victories, are finally unprepared to offer odds against about the greatest player ever to pick up a golf club. And speaking as somebody who backed Bart Bryant before Sunday's final round at Bay Hill, I have to wonder who can blame them?

Just as he kept coming back from the brink at the recent World Matchplay, Sunday's finale at Bay Hill was all too typical of the great man. For once, nobody could accuse his challenger of caving in under the pressure. Bryant played an exemplary, bogey-free back-nine and sitting in the clubhouse as his opponent approached the perilous 18th, I must admit to being confident of a winning bet. Almost any other player would have been delighted just to bank a par and make the play-off, but Woods attacked in his customary style and won with a brilliant birdie.

Even scarier for the rest is the fact that Tiger was quite clearly nowhere near his best for the first two days. On a course where he'd struggled in recent years, he was still good enough to sit seven behind going into Saturday and emerge odds-on by the end of that day's round. With several much more favourable venues in his next few tournaments, there must be a very serious chance that Woods will not only keep on winning, but beat arguably the stiffest target in golf's record book - Byron Nelson's 11 consecutive PGA Tour wins back in 1945.

The stats speak for themselves. He is now unbeaten anywhere in six months, and still finished second for that last defeat at August's Deutsche Bank Championship. Starting with the 2006 Open, his first win following the death of his father, Woods has won an incredible 17 out of 26 PGA Tour events. On that basis he should be [1.66] for each event, a price that also closely reflects his record in World Golf Championship strokeplay events such as this week's, of which he's won 12 from 17.

And this week's course at Doral should probably make him even shorter than the normal price, because he's owned the place in recent years. Doral was good value for its 'Blue Monster' nickname a decade ago, but nowadays the longer hitters like Woods tend to take it apart. Woods has won three times in a row here, and stands at 54 under par for those events. In order to beat Nelson's record, Tiger will be faced with courses that have previously caused him trouble - most notably Sawgrass - but its unlikely to be an issue this week.

Nevertheless, the fact that he will probably win still doesn't comprehensively answer the question of whether odds-on pre-tournament represents value. There will be plenty of pre-tournament layers who have still successfully managed to 'green up' for three of Woods' four tournament victories in 2008. Torrey Pines was a predictable walkover, but at Bay Hill he was matched at [7.6] in-running, and in Dubai and at the World Matchplay, Tiger drifted to over [20.0]. For this reason alone I couldn't back these pre-tournament odds. If somebody were to suggest having a big bet beforehand, and then sitting back to watch rather than trade, I couldn't argue with the strategy. For an in-running trader though, the most sensible strategy is to either sit out and hope for a drift, or lay with a definite view to closing out if and when that drift materialises.

In fact, if I was planning to lay out a chunk on Woods at a short-price right now, I'd prefer to trade his Masters' price down from [2.24], a price I am extremely confident will shorten over the next four weeks. Doral is Tiger's only tournament ahead of Augusta, and even if he were to lose this week, I doubt it would dampen market enthusiasm for the season's first Major. Alternatively if he wins, expect a bandwagon to gather pace. Media attention will focus almost entirely on Woods and his two most pressing goals, a historic Grand Slam and Nelson's record. As by far the best known and most popular golfer, I expect to see a flood of big bets from heavy hitters who not without reason see a fifth green jacket as inevitable. My prediction is that come the big kick-off on April 10th, his price will be below [2.0].