Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 09 August 2009 /

Woods looks plenty short enough against a rejuvenated Harrington, says Paul Krishnamurty, who has a pair of two-ball bets for the final round.

Now he's produced three high-quality rounds in succession, its safe to say Padraig Harrington is well and truly back. Having started the week at [150.0], his biggest price in years, the three-time major champion has turned the recent formbook on its head, and carries a commanding lead into the final round.

It won't be easy though. As well as having to contend with a weather forecast predicting very strong winds, Harrington will expect to come under the most intense pressure from his nearest challenger and playing partner, Tiger Woods. With the rest at least five off the lead and all available at [100.0] or more, the market and formbook both point towards a classic head to head scenario.

The odds naturally favour Harrington at [2.04], though not as much as one might expect from a man with a three shot lead. Considering he's starting so far back, [2.3] about Woods strikes me as an awful value bet. That's not to say he won't win, but anyone who fancies him to do so would be much better advised taking the [1.54] about Tiger winning the 2-ball. Even if Woods wins the 2-ball by three strokes, he would still have to negotiate a play-off.

From a personal betting perspective, I managed to recoup most of my in-running stakes back when Zach Johnson briefly shortened to single figures yesterday. That leaves some nice positions on several of the chasing pack, but in honesty, it's hard to envisage any of them challenging the leading pair now.

The best final day value could lie in two-balls then, and a couple of outsiders take the eye. Firstly, Sergio Garcia's commitment when out of contention is so unreliable that he's always worth taking on, especially with a trier like Soren Hansen.

The Dane has just recently started to make an impact in the biggest events, finishing very strongly in both the US and British Opens to register a pair of lucrative top-10s, and is close enough to the places to attempt the same again. Today's tough conditions will demand resilience from players if they want to keep their scores together, and in that department, [2.44] chance Hansen wins this contest hands down.

Secondly, Alvaro Quiros could be worth a punt at [2.8] to beat Retief Goosen. Again, a difference in the levels of determination could be the key. Whereas the difference between a few places down the leaderboard will make little difference to Goosen, its of critical importance to a player like Quiros who is climbing the rankings. In any case, Goosen has only rarely thrived on this course before, and though the circumstances were rather different, his final day performances over the last couple of months have been terrible.

Selections:

Two-Balls
16.40 Soren Hansen @ [2.44]
17.00 Alvaro Quiros @ [2.8]

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