Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 07 August 2009 /

Paul Krishnamurty talks us through the big stories from round one last night where Tiger Woods played poorly but is still very much in it, Padraig Harrington played well and a duo of Americans look the best value bets.

There was an eery similarity between Tiger Woods' first round performance at Firestone and his opening effort in last week's Buick Open. Once again, Tiger's start was anything but impressive, missing many fairways and generally causing concern for those who've backed him down to as low as [2.22]. This time there was one crucial difference though; he scrambled his way round for a perfectly respectable score of 68 to lie just four shots off the pace.

That's half the early deficit he had to overcome at Warwick Hills, and we all know what happened there. Nobody will be surprised to see a completely different Tiger take this tournament by the scruff of the neck. Nevertheless, the current odds of [2.74] don't look particularly appealing given that erratic first round.

The main highlight from day one was the surprising, if long overdue, return to form of one of the game's elite players, Padraig Harrington.Backed earlier at up to [150.0], (his biggest price in many a year), Harrington will take a two-stroke lead into Friday and is now a clear second best behind Woods at [8.0].

While today's 64 could begin to transform Harrington's prospect of retaining his PGA title next week, I'd need to see more than one good round before assuming he's genuinely back to his best. In any case, his previous record at Firestone is dire, never making a top-10 here in ten tries.

With Tiger and Padraig taking out nearly 50% of the book, there must surely be some trading value elsewhere. The next best priced player is at [23.0]. Even if Tiger does go on and win again, it seems unlikely that he'll run away with it. Less than a third of the field registered an under par score today, so at least a couple of those that did are bound to go out tomorrow and set up a strong position for the weekend, causing their odds to shorten markedly.

I like a pair of trades on Hunter Mahan and Zach Johnson, both at around the [28.0] mark. Mahan sits level with Woods in a share for eighth, and seems very likely to remain there or thereabouts on all recent Stateside evidence. Before missing the cut in the Open, Mahan's last three PGA Tour events had yielded finishes of 6th, 4th and 2nd.

Former Masters champion Johnson is currently faring a shot better in a tie for 5th. With three titles in ten months, Zach has become quite prolific, and again his recent form is rock-solid having finished runner-up on his penultimate start.

Selections

Hunter Mahan @ [28.0]
Zach Johnson @ [28.0]

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