Valero Texas Open Betting: Time for fading stars to rescue floundering careers

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 07 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

There's a trio of big names lurking at the wrong end of the rankings. Paul Krishnamurty on the former hot-shots in need of a huge autumn to get back amongst the elite.

Since the new schedule kicked in last season, this autumn period on the PGA Tour has a distinctly second division feel. Once the Fedex Cup reaches its conclusion, most of the top-class players either head off to play lucrative tournaments around the world or hang their clubs up for their autumn break. In their absence, fields for the 'Fall Series' tend to look distinctly wide open with very little to separate all but a handful of top-class entrants.

As punters have discovered recently, it makes betting a decidedly tricky affair. Both winners of the two Fall Series events to date started in triple figures; Will Mackenzie at [160.0] in the Viking Classic, and Dustin Johnson defying similar odds to win last week's Turning Stone Resort Championship.

The essential dynamic in play during the Fall Series is the race to earn full playing privileges for 2009 by making the top-125 on the money list. One good week can transform a player's season, and by extension, their career opportunities. Johnson, for instance, started last week below the crucial cut line in 128th place on the money list, before that win lifted him up to a very respectable 41st. Mackenzie similarly salvaged a poor season by winning the previous event. Not only are both now safe, but they're guaranteed an invite to the restricted field, season-opening Mercedes Championship.

Naturally, there is a temptation to consider backing players around the cut line because of this extra incentive, but this is by no means a fool-proof strategy. After all, these are moderate players who often struggle when the pressure is on. These characters are by no means certain to rise to the occasion.

But there is a particular profile of player who warrants extra attention around this time though. That is, higher-class players who've had a bad year, and are now fighting for a status they'd previously taken for granted. Three characters in particular take the eye ahead of this week's third instalment of the series, the Valero Texas Open.

I was stunned to find Zach Johnson right on the mark in 125th place when studying the money list. It's just 18 months since Johnson won the Masters, and followed up soon after with another win. Perhaps he has been guilty of resting on his laurels, knowing he can rely on the exemptions earned as a Masters winner for years to come.

However, I'm in no doubt that Zach remains one of the better US players, likely to win again at this level. Johnson hasn't played for six weeks, and has never bothered playing this event in the past. I suspect he's been recharging for this autumn battle and could be a player to watch in the weeks to come, with [65.0] in Texas a reasonable price.

Another big-name who's never felt the need to play this tournament before is [46.0] chance Davis Love. The former PGA winner is clearly well past his best, but produced by far his best finish of the season in 3rd on Sunday. That lifted him up to 131st place, ensuring he has plenty of motivation for the coming weeks. This wouldn't be the first time Love has turned around a terrible season with a prosperous autumn. In 2006, he'd looked similarly 'gone' before a string of top autumn finishes including his last tournament win in the Chrysler Classic.

JJ Henry has never reached the heights of either Johnson or Love, but he is a much better player than 132nd place on the money list suggests. Two years ago he was one of the more impressive US players in the Ryder Cup side. JJ has taken the eye on a few recent outings, recording some excellent statistics and much improved results. Now he's back on one of his favourite courses, I strongly fancy Henry to move inside the top-125 this week. Henry has made the top-six three years in a row at La Cantera, and finished runner-up back in 2001 - [50.0] looks decent value to win the event, as must [4.6] for a top-10 finish given those stats,

And if any of them need some inspitation to draw upon, they should consider last year's Texas Open winner. Justin Leonard had slipped way down the rankings and been widely written off before landing his first title in over two years. One year on, he's won again, starred in a Ryder Cup victory and now starts as a single-figure favourite to defend his title.