US PGA Championship / Tareq Quiroz / 06 August 2008 /

Tareq Quiroz has given up on hard luck stories to gather some low risk momentum. Here's to the good times...

Golf fans all around the world will be glued to their TV screens this week as the top stars in the game battle it out for the year's final major. The global nature of the game is reflected in the fact that the three big ones this season have been won by an American, an Irishman and a South African, not to mention last week's WGC win for a Fijian.

Golf is followed by fans of variying degrees of commitment. The most ardent will not miss a second of any of the four days and will not only be camped in front of the TV but also have a constant link to the Leaderboard via the internet. Others will take little interest in the early rounds and just savour the moment when the winning putt is sunk. You will even get some who want the hustle and bustle of the early rounds but lose interest if we have a runaway leader in the final stages.

Different kinds of golf fans make for different sorts of golf punters. Are you pre-tournament only? Do you just play the opening stages and try and take advantage of early movers? Or are you the adrenalin charged punter who wants to be there on the back nine of the final day with all the highs and lows that go with it?

Barely a week goes by without a short priced golfer getting turned over with a late capitulation and there are great opportunities to take advantage if you pick your moment. Nobody writes about the Parker McLaughlins of this world and their runaway successes, instead preferring to concentrate on the John Cook type stories when seemingly the tournament is in the bag only for nerves to get the better of even the most experienced golfer. Both these recent occurrences prove that there is something for both the backer and layer in the latter stages of every tournament.

This week's huge event will see many of you entering the fray late on to make an easy buck. Oakland Hills is a tough old golf course and that will only add to the fun and excitement on the final day. My vast experience of in-running golf punting has led me to many good and equally some pretty bad days down the stretch. I could sit for hours and shake my head over so many hard lucky stories.

With that experience behind me I am now settled on a particular form of in-running method that played correctly will result in decent rewards. Momentum trading is my chosen form of golf betting and one that really shouldn't result in too much risk. Contrary to popular belief you really don't need to have access to super fast data sources to take advantage of the price movements, all you really need is to choose the right moment to strike. Never forget that although there will always be one or two people out there who have the information before you, the vast majority will be on a level playing field and thus the opportunity will always arise.

The first thing to do is know your course. Oakland Hills is a tough test and you need to know how it is playing. Do not play on the first two days as there is very little benefit and your time will be better spent compiling statistics on how each hole is playing. Based on that information you will be ready to act on day three. Wait until the last five groups are on the course and for your first time in momentum trading just play the basic strategy. The most simple and basic example of this is to watch a player for example on the par 5 second and the moment either the TV pictures or the scoreboard updates wait for the price drop and you use your knowledge to know when to strike.

The idea is to lay at the lowest price so if a player is trading at [6.4] and he records a birdie you will see a price drop and a perfect example of how the odds can be forced down unrealistically. Be ready to act quickly and put a lay out at let's say [3.6] and you will get matched more often than not, once matched you will be able to back the player back at [4.6] for a quick profit within 30 seconds. This is the strategy and the knack is knowing when to apply it.

Based on your stats you should target the easy and the hard holes and centre your plan around the best known players. The price swings are crazy and often totally unrealistic but this is fuelled by the desire of enough punters thinking that that birdie is the one that starts the victory roll - that is so rarely the case.

The example is basic and of course you can apply it at so many different levels. Oakland Hills is different to many courses because there are only two par 5. Also the toughness of the course means that as opposed to laying and backing after a birdie you may want to reverse your strategy and back after a good par at a tough hole and lay the player off when the price inevitably moves in.

The back nine at Oakland Hills is particularly tough and it will pay to watch out for pars at beasts such as the 500 yard par four 14th and the long par three 17th. With the last reasonable form coming from the Ryder Cup it is best to assess the course as the tournament progresses. You are now ready to get stuck in to some fun and hopefully rewarding momentum trading.

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