US PGA Championship / Paul Krishnamurty / 14 August 2011 /

Paul Krishnamurty is sitting in a very decent position with the progress of Jim Furyk and Scott Verplank and as a result will turn his attentions to today's two-balls, where Brendan De Jonge can outplay Phil Mickelson

After three days, there is at least one conclusion to be drawn about this PGA venue. Atlanta Athletic Club is not a track for backing the favourites. All of the leading four players going into Sunday's final round begun the week at well over [500.0], and of the current top-seven, only Steve Stricker was less than a [400.0] chance. My pre-tournament theory that the cream would rise to the top on this course has been spectacularly debunked, although luckily I'd wised up by day two when advising outsiders Scott Verplank at [70.0] and Jim Furyk at [330.0].

For a while last night, Furyk was either in the lead or just behind, and looked arguably the man to beat. A disastrous finish has probably cost Jim his chance, but given the inexperience of the leaders, it may be possible to win from six back. In complete contrast, Verplank finished like a train and has a live chance from just two shots back. That combined trade has already yielded a profit thanks to Furyk, and should Verplank shorten just a couple of points to [10.0], 21 units profit will be guaranteed, with potentially much more to come if either man hits their secondary lay target or even wins.

Naturally, there is no need to add to such an outright portfolio, which is handy given the difficulty in making predictions from here. Brendan Steele, Jason Dufner and Keegan Bradley all coped marvellously with the pressure yesterday, but the final acts of a major remain an unknown quantity for them. If forced to pick between them, Bradley would be my choice, because he was so impressive under pressure when winning his maiden title recently. Any one of 20 players can still win though.

Instead of trying to solve that puzzle, my final day strategy revolves around two-ball betting. In keeping with this week's general theme, all four selections are the outsiders in their match.

5u Michael Bradley @ [2.86) (vs Harrington) (Starts 14.00)

Devoid of recent form, 2008 PGA champion Padraig Harrington looked a man to oppose going into the event, and so it has proved. Pod has never been a player to rely on when the title is out of reach, so yesterday's 75 was hardly surprising. His veteran opponent Michael Bradley may be vastly inferior when it comes to rankings, but is likelier to be properly motivated and therefore just as likely to deliver in this particular scenario. For a player like Bradley, today's round is pivotal in terms of Fedex Cup and ranking points, and he can take heart from playing the last six holes in two under par yesterday. No mean feat!

4u Ross Fisher @ [2.74] (vs McIlroy) (Starts 14.10)

Nobody could ever accuse McIlroy of being a non-trier after the way he fought on despite a painful wrist injury on Thursday. Nevertheless, Rory has proved a deeply disappointing favourite, struggling to cope with the Bermuda greens, and can hardly be seen as a reliable odds-on bet, with nothing to play for and carrying an injury. Opposing him with Bryce Molder paid dividends yesterday, so I'm repeating the tactic at slightly shorter odds with the very capable Ross Fisher.

4u Ryan Palmer @ [2.9] (vs Mickelson) (Starts 17.30)

The final day of a major just wouldn't be the same without opposing Phil Mickelson in his two-ball. More often than not, this has proved a lucrative strategy, although admittedly he proved me completely wrong at the Open. Mickelson will still harbour thoughts of winning this title from seven shots back, and will doubtless come out all guns blazing. Phil will go chasing pins, and if it goes wrong we could well see him lose interest, as has happened so many times before in similar situations. Ryan Palmer on the other hand has plenty to play for, and is finishing the tournament well, playing the difficult back nine under par yesterday.

5u Brendon De Jonge @ [3.1] (vs Westwood) (Starts 18.10)

Westwood seemed utterly fed up in last night's post-round interview, understandably so given how well he's played without reward. Like most Europeans, it seems these Bermuda greens are not really his thing. Just like Mickelson, Westwood isn't completely out of this tournament yet, but the first few holes will be critical. Lee's record in the States, particularly around this time of year, is littered with disappointing finishes, perhaps as the searing heat has drained his enthusiasm. It must also be added that, irrespective of Westwood's credentials, Brendon De Jonge is a very capable opponent at these odds. The Zimbabwean has maintained his good form coming into the tournament, and is well on target to register a fourth straight top-13 finish.

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