US PGA Championship / Paul Krishnamurty / 12 August 2011 / 5

Three questions loom large over day two at the PGA Championship. Can Tiger Woods put yesterday's reputation-shattering performance behind him to make the cut? Finally and most importantly, is the Wanamaker Trophy already Steve Stricker's to lose, asks Paul Krishnamurty.

As a pre-tournament McIlroy backer, it was extremely frustrating to see him potentially blow his chance with that ridiculous shot choice. Chipping out sideways, rather than risk his career by hitting a tree root, is a decision that an experienced course manager would make every single time.

In fairness, tactical mistakes are all still part of the overall Rory package and he coped quite brilliantly with the pain afterwards. Nevertheless, it is hard to be confident, especially as today's early start leaves him very little time to recover. If still suffering pain this morning, the most sensible move might be to withdraw, rather than risk further damage.

Tiger is a [3.75] chance to make the cut, which must be a first for this stage of a major. While yesterday's erratic play illustrated the scale of his golfing troubles, I wouldn't rule him out of the weekend just yet. Tiger is nothing if not a warrior, and he will be desperate to fight back. Nevertheless, he must be taken on with Davis Love in their 3-ball again. Love was one of three winners advised yesterday, and given the scale of his dominance, [2.78] is simply the wrong price. Love beat Padraig Harrington by five shots yesterday, and Woods by nine. He's in form, whereas their games are both in crisis.

The answer to the third and final question concerning Steve Stricker, is yes. That may seem ridiculously premature, but his stunning opening 63 is going to look better as the day goes on. Atlanta Athletic Club is a very tough course, that will get tougher as the greens dry out. Pin positions will make catch-up golf a particularly hazardous business over the weekend, and as predicted already, this looks very much a 'front-runners' course. I will be surprised if Stricker is caught before he tees off tonight, and there's every chance he'll still hold a two-shot lead.

Moreover, the immediate chasing pack are markedly inferior. Of the 22 players currently under par, only Stricker and Adam Scott begun the week at less than [150.0]. It seems unlikely that any comparable big name will get close to him this morning. Stricker has won from the front twice recently on the PGA Tour, and certainly has the tools to shoot par from here on in. His current seven-under par score may well be a winning total.

Successful gambling, however, is all about finding value and respected though Stricker may well be, [3.6] chances on day two of a major are not my thing. Instead, the second day plans revolve around a trio of other late-starters, at relatively huge odds. It isn't so much that any of them are particularly fancied to win the title, rather that their odds offer good trading mileage.

All the same arguments about the difficulty of the course and winning targets equally apply to the likes of Scott Verplank and Matteo Manassero. They sit at -3 and -2 respectively, and will probably shorten up considerably before even hitting a shot today. Neither was particularly obvious at the start of the week, but both have enough 2011 form to warrant respect. By the time Verplank, currently in sole fourth, tees off at 19:35, he will be among a very small band of players with any hope of holding the halfway lead.

In addition, Jim Furyk is just too big to ignore at [330.0]. One over par wasn't a bad score yesterday, and again should look better as the afternoon develops. He and Verplank were tied for sixth on this course in the 2001 PGA, and before this poor season, Furyk would have been one of the leading candidates here. It was notable to see Jim put up an improved weekend performance, so perhaps he isn't quite the no-hoper these odds suggest.

My advice is to employ a similar trading system to that used for Find Me a 100 Winner. The plan is to stake nine units on this trio, then place orders to lay each at [10.0] and [3.0]. Hitting any single target would ensure a profit on the trade.

Recommended bets

4u Davis Love @ [2.78] (vs Woods, Harrington) (Starts 18.45)

Outright
4u Matteo Manassero @ [65.0]
4u Scott Verplank @ [70.0]
1u Jim Furyk @ [330.0]

Place order to lay all three players 15u @ [10.0]
Place order to lay all three players 20u @ [3.0]

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(5)

1. Alex | 12 August 2011

   Steve you are a genius. Snapped up some of Furyk at Monster odds...lets hope he puts in a demon round tomorrow for some very healthy profit!

   Alex

2. Mike N | 13 August 2011

   Great shout on Furyk Paul, don't think he'll hang around over the weekend (just a hunch), but still, your 330.0 shot is now a 20.0 - hope he hits your lay price mate.

3. Steven Rawlings | 13 August 2011

   Hi Alex,

   I wish it were true! I merely uploaded the piece for Paul; it’s he that deserves all the credit. What a shout hey!

   Cheers
   Steve
   

4. Alex | 13 August 2011

   Furyk...advice...lay him off now or wait for the first three holes?

   Alex

5. Paul Krishnamurty | 14 August 2011

   Cheers guys

   What a frustrating finish! He looked so solid, despite leaving many putts out there.

   At least a profit was made from the first lay, and Verplank could still provide a dream result.

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