USPGA Betting Update: Odds-on Tiger looks ominous on front-runners' course

US PGA Championship / Paul Krishnamurty / 14 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Golfing Rule No.1: When Woods leads early in a major, he wins. But there are still betting options left in the US PGA however...

"Thursday's early-starters enjoyed what will probably turn out to be the easiest conditions all week and even then we only saw two scores better than 69. 'Catch-up golf' is not going to be easy at Hazeltine."

Tiger's got the lead after the first round so are there any betting options left in the US PGA? Well you can always play in the winner without Woods market. Paul Krishnamurty has three suggestions...

So, if you've followed my earlier advice to lay Tiger Woods at [2.94] pre-tournament, what now? The main hope was that, in keeping with virtually all recent evidence, Woods would drift in-running, but that now looks a very tall order after he stormed to the first round lead with a five under par 67.

Given that he needed to overturn substantial deficits for back-to-back wins over the last fortnight, it looks very ominous for the rest. For us layers, now could be the time to take a loss on the chin and start again.

Only eight players beat par on this course when last hosting the event in 2002, and I doubt it will be too many more this time by the end. It's not so much that the course is impossible, rather it seems like a long, gruelling struggle where birdies will be few and far between. Thursday's early-starters enjoyed what will probably turn out to be the easiest conditions all week and even then we only saw two scores better than 69. 'Catch-up golf' is not going to be easy.

That must bode well for the 26 players who have an under-par score to defend, and particularly Woods at the top of the tree on -5. Given the opening day scores, the chances are that Tiger will have not been overtaken by the time he tees off at 19.45, and should that be the case his odds will surely have shortened considerably from the current [1.9] mark. My Woods strategy for Friday is to close out the initial lay taking a loss, and then take some more of the [1.9] with a view to trading out as his price shortens up through the afternoon.

Similarly, some of the other late-starters could offer some short-term trading value. I'm less inclined to include second-placed Padraig Harrington, as his odds are fairly short anyway, than a trio of capable late-starters currently sitting in a tie for third place, two behind Woods.

Hunter Mahan at [27.0], Robert Allenby at [48.0] and Matthew Goggin at [100.0] all deserve plenty of respect on recent efforts. On form over the last two months, Mahan is the second best player in the world, and looks set for another weekend in contention. Allenby was runner-up last week at Bridgestone, and Goggin challenged seriously for the Open right through until the 71st hole.

I expect to see all of their odds shorten throughout the day as few of the early starters overtake them, and once they start their rounds any sort of early forward move will prompt further sharp contractions in price.

It may also make sense to back this trio in the 'Without Woods' market, as I suspect this one could be far more competitive over the weekend. We should know the rules by now. When Woods leads early in a major, he wins.