US PGA Championship / Paul Krishnamurty / 07 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Golf betting on Betfair doesn't stop once the tournament starts with In-Play markets running across all four days and in some cases right up to the final putt. Paul Krishnamurty runs through the best ways to make a mint on the 2011 USPGA

Atlanta Athletic Club has hosted several majors throughout it's history, most recently the 2001 USPGA, when David Toms edged out Phil Mickelson on the final green.

The Highlands Course has since been renovated, with holes lengthened, fairways narrowed and bunkers deepened. Elsewhere on this site, I've tried to evaluate which types of players will be best suited to the layout, and the key stats to follow. Next, we need a plan for once the tournament gets under way, to maximise in-running betting opportunities.

Firstly, the style of the layout leads me to re-iterate a theme explored before the Open Championship , differentiating between 'front-runners' and 'catch-up' courses. Studying the historic stats on each course offers huge opportunities for in-running punters, and certainly made the task at Royal St George's easier.

On that occasion, the stats suggested sticking to players within three of the lead, which meant eventual winner Darren Clarke was on the shortlist from the moment he finished his first round, and at an attractive price. Darren was available at [60.0] after finishing round one in a tie for sixth, and [17.0] when sharing the halfway lead.

On the basis of the 2001 PGA at Atlanta, this course has a similar in-running style. Neither Toms and Mickelson were ever worse than third after any round, and played together in Sunday's final group. Third-placed Steve Lowery was never worse than fifth all weekend, and shock halfway leader Shingo Katayama hung on for a share of fourth. Likewise in other previous majors played here, Larry Nelson led from halfway in the 1981 PGA, and Jerry Pate was in the thick of it from the outset when winning the 1976 US Open.

A tour of the course explains the trend. Like other front-runners' courses - Sandwich, Augusta, St Andrews - it seems nearly all of the red numbers will be made on the same small number of holes. Elsewhere, caution is the best policy, therefore suiting the man trying to protect a lead whilst the chasers are forced to take risks. The nine holes between the 5th and the 13th all offer birdie opportunities, but par will be a great score through both the opening and closing stretches.

The opening par-4 will yield a few birdies, but the next three holes are very tough. The 2nd is a mammoth 512-yard par-four, and the 475 yard 3rd could play even longer into the wind. The par-three 4th offers a good example of those aforementioned tendencies favouring the leaders. At 219 yards, surrounded by water, players would doubtless prefer to play a safe shot and leave a tricky two-putt for par. Any serious attempt at birdie requires taking the water on.

Next comes that easier stretch, and the ideal time to be backing your pick. The best birdie opportunities are on the 5th and 12th, both classic risk-reward par-fives. Big-hitters enjoy only a theoretical advantage here, because small greens surrounded by hazards present a real dilemma for the second shot. Given the importance of finding the correct portion of these putting surfaces, laying up just short might well turn out to be the best strategy.

Once 13, a driveable par-4, is out of the way, par will be a very good score for the remainder, so it might pay to lay contenders or at least take the risk out of positions. The 14th and 16th are long par-fours with narrow fairways and notoriously difficult greens. The 15th and 17th are dramatic par-threes where the tournament may well be won or lost. Toms made an ace at the former in 2001, but overall it yielded more big numbers than any hole bar the brutal 18th.

The finishing hole is a classic par-four measuring over 500 yards, with water surrounding both sides of the green. Ten years ago, this hole produced superb drama. Toms started the hole one clear of Mickelson, but found the rough and was forced to lay up. Meanwhile, Phil knocked his approach to birdie range to set up a chance of a win even without a play-off. With all three results still alive, Mickelson missed for birdie, then Toms drained a 12 foot par-putt to take his first major title.

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