US PGA Championship / Romilly Evans / 09 August 2011 /

Romilly Evans profiles five likely lads to set the first-round pace in the season's final major and Lefty is the headline selection

The rota for the USPGA comes full circle this week with its return to Atlanta Athletic Club, a decade on from David Toms' thrilling duel down the stretch with Phil Mickelson in 2001. Both men, already winners on Tour this season, renew rivalries around the Highlands Course again this week, but will find much has changed.

Despite their respective wins at the Crowne Plaza Invitational and the Houston Open, neither Mickelson nor Toms are among the front-runners in the betting. Of course, that's outside the ropes of tournament play. Inside, the changes to the course are even more substantial.

The greens have proved the major talking point. And the wholesale decision to uproot the Bentgrass surfaces which have resided here since the club's inception and replace them with Bermuda grass is one which has largely been welcomed. This is because Bermuda grass arrives at its mint condition in late summer (PGA season), as opposed to Bentgrass which perennially peaks in April (Masters season). Makes sense.

Those aren't my words. They're the words of Atlanta Athletic Club superintendent, Ken Mangum. And before you start thinking they're only relevant to fans of horticulture, see what our Ken has to add.

"You can dry out Bermuda grass in the heat without stressing it," he said.

"So this year our greens will be faster and considerably firmer. Players won't have as much control when the ball lands, which should make the course play far tougher."

All of which means, we can readily assume that scores won't approach the 15-under total that Toms posted in '01 when an unusually damp July led to soft and receptive greens. By contrast, this year's forecast is for sweltering conditions approaching 40°C with only a chance of light showers. These putting surfaces are going to resemble runways by the end of the week, with only the purest-struck irons being able to secure safe landing and avoid the ball ricocheting off into the rough.

Spin control will therefore be vital in a week when scores should sky-rocket as the putting surfaces wear thin. This trend should even become apparent in the microcosm of the first round.

If having an early tee-time is invariably important when it comes to recording the lowest score over the opening 18, I'd wager it will be imperative this Thursday. That theory neatly splits the field in two, while the remaining criteria for picking a trailblazer involve fitting a player's talents to the track's specific demands. Speaking of which, any thoughts, Ken?

"You have to hit driver out here because of the length," continues the local course doctor. "But you better hit it straight."

I don't want to fall out with my new punting mentor, but here I would take issue. Granted, control is nowhere easier to find than from the fairways. That said, golf's big bombers can make a nonsense of missing a fairway, even imparting spin from thick hay since they're approaching the greens with only a wedge in their hands.

With that in mind, I'd be keen to include a couple of heavy-artillery players in the staking plan. Starting with the big man who missed out here last time, Phil Mickelson. Lefty has long been a riddle, wrapped in an enigma, sporting a trademark visor. Still, I think I'm getting closer to predicting when this mercurial player is about to shine and the planets are aligning this week.

After a stellar display against the odds when runner-up at The Open, Phil has thrown in two lacklustre performances in as many weeks. But he's only really interested in the majors these days, and has spent most of his time refining his shots for the unique demands of this Atlanta layout.

Mickelson reports that his game is coming round, together with a recalcitrant driver which is finally finding their short stuff after Butch Harmon recommended cutting down its shaft in the name of accuracy. He has the check-box early start (08:40) and will enjoy the relaxed company of his slayer-turned-friend Toms. At [40.0] to back to lead on day one and [28.0] to win the tournament, Phil could pull off a big time double as he seeks to salvage his year.

Wake-up calls don't come any earlier than the one set for Brendon de Jonge who is first off (07:30) on Thursday. The greens won't come any smoother or receptive too, so there's every reason for the Zimbabwean to haul himself out of bed. De Jonge has been one of the finds of the season and while that first victory still eludes him, he has done plenty of first-round leaderboard squatting, even in majors. This straight and consistent hitter accordingly rates huge value at [150.0] to back.

Bo Van Pelt, who pulls out off the rank at 8.40am, is another form horse who starts to look around for company once he gets his head in front. BVP has won, though, and always plays well towards the backend of the year. It's high time he made his presence felt at [110.0] to back.

Adam Scott and Charlie Howell constitute my final two off the tee. After last week's WGC romp, Scott needs no introduction but still makes plenty of appeal at [30.0] to back. Long and straight and with his natural rhythm restored, he can pick up where he left off when going wire-to-wire last week.

Howell is in many ways the American equivalent of the young Aussie - a precociously talented and textbook swinger whose putting travails have seen him resort to the long putter. Like Scott, Howell has slowly rekindled the requisite confidence in his game - what's more, he has prepared extensively at this course during his week off. Take a flyer on a jump-jet takeoff in Round One at a massive [120.0] to back.

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