US PGA Championship / Paul Krishnamurty / 04 August 2008 /

Paul Krishnamurty reflects on why the history of the US PGA Championships suggests the winner will be homegrown, and very possibly a big outsider.

Historically, the USPGA has developed a reputation as the major most likely to produce a shock winner'. Over the last 20 years, Jeff Sluman, John Daly, Rich Beem and Shaun Micheel were all unimaginable champions. Betfair wasn't around for the first two, but Beem and Micheel certainly started at [1000.0], and as ninth reserve, Daly was equally unlikely.

Recent winners disprove that reputation, with the last four won by previous major champions. Below the winner though, the trends persist. The last two runners-up, Woody Austin and Micheel again, were rank outsiders and in the last seven years, over half of the players to have made the frame started at over [100.0].

The other blindingly obvious trend is that the leaderboard is usually dominated by Americans. Only six non-Americans have ever lifted the Wanamaker Trophy, and over that same seven year period, two thirds of those top-5 finishers represented the host country. While the PGA field always contains a greater proportion of Americans, this last statistic stands out in an era when their domination of world golf is being challenged like never before. In comparison, Americans have filled much less than half of the places in this year's three majors.

Still, there are sound arguments for the trend to decline this year. Firstly, Tiger Woods is absent, who incidentally has won this major four times including the last two, leaving just eight Americans trading at under [100.0]. Furthermore, this year's venue has hosted the championship twice previously, both of which produced one of those rare overseas winners. However, it must also be noted that the last time Oakland Hills hosted a major, the 1996 US Open, five of the first six were American including another shock winner, Steve Jones.

So what can we expect from Oakland Hills? It has a long majors history, hosting eight in total, and has always been regarded as one of the toughest, and best, courses in the US. It's long at over 7,450 yards, though not enough to seriously penalise short-hitters, and littered with hazards, particularly the dozens of greenside bunkers. The heavily contoured greens are notoriously difficult.

We last saw it when hosting the 2004 Ryder Cup, though comparisons with that contest or the 1996 US Open are of limited use because the course will be set up differently. Usually, USPGA courses are a tough tee to green test, but are never set up at their most brutal so as not to humiliate the 20-odd club professionals who compete in this championship. Its hard to see exactly why any specific type of player will be particularly disadvantaged by the set-up, and given the tournament history plus Steve Jones's shock in the last Oaklands Hills major, its easy to imagine another upset.

As for past tournament form, there's little to choose between the PGA records of the biggest names. Vijay Singh and Phil Mickelson have five top-10s each, Vijay has two titles to Phil's one. Ernie Els has never won the PGA, but has finished top-5 in three of the last four years. Of those three, only Mickelson, the deserved favourite at [11.0], has been anywhere near their best this season. Consistent Jim Furyk can match their number of top-10s, without ever really threatening to win. Nevertheless, having made the frame in that 1996 US Open, he is bound to attract money at [22.0].

Kenny Perry will also have his supporters at [36.0], having won three times already this summer. Perry has three PGA top-10s, not bad considering he's often been an also-ran during a career that only peaked once he hit 40. Most famously, Perry was doing TV interviews as the assumed winner at Valhalla in 1996 before Mark Brooks snatched the Wanamaker Trophy from his grasp.

Looking through the bigger-prices and specifically the home challenge, [80.0] chance Justin Leonard has a fine tournament record. He's twice finished runner-up, at Winged Foot and Whistling Straits, as well as a couple of other top-5s. Furthermore, Leonard is enjoying his best spell in several years, winning twice since last September.

Other Americans that take the eye are a couple of former runners-up Chad Campbell at [95.0] and Steve Stricker at [70.0]. Campbell finished second at Oak Hill back in 2003, and has looked on the way back to his best with a string of recent top-10s. Stricker's best PGA came a decade ago at Sahalee when losing a close fight with Vijay. Predictably, he did little in this or any other Major during a long lean spell through the early part of this century, but reached the top-10 again in 2006 after returning to form.

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