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US PGA Championship Betting: Green up with a greens specialist

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Paul Krishnamurty has watched the skilled putters make the early running in this year's championship, and advocates a policy of sticking with them. There is one possible exception, though, in the form of Sergio.

The last of the 2008 Major venues, the toughest and, by extension, the best series in living memory, is certainly living up to its nickname of "The Monster". Conditions at Oakland Hills are resembling a US Open test more than a PGA, as is the scoring. Only seven players beat par on the opening day, leaving the strong suggestion that nobody will be in red figures on Sunday.

It's clear from the leaderboard that Adam Scott was spot-on with his pre-tournament prediction that Oakland Hills was 'all about the greens'. All three first round leaders, Robert Karlsson, Andres Romero and Jeev Milkha Singh, are red-hot with the flatstick, while those who usually struggle to cope with brutal surfaces such as Scott or Vijay Singh, look beaten already.

The one star who breaks that trend is Sergio Garcia, who started with a one-under par 69 to position himself nicely in 4th. Bidding for his first Major, the mercurial Spaniard is now second favourite at [11.0], behind [8.4] favourite Phil Mickelson. Both clearly have the long-game brilliance to master this course and are still backable at these odds, but as neither could exactly be described as 'reliable' I'd much rather take bigger prices about other world-class players right in the thick of it.

This course looks absolutely perfect for Jim Furyk, a brilliant putter who rarely misses a green in regulation. The former US Open champion has a great record in all the Majors precisely because of these skills and it would come as no surprise to see him follow in Padraig Harrington's footsteps and join the exclusive band of dual-Major winners. Unless one of the early-starters surprises us all with a very low score, the odds of later starters like [23.0] chance Furyk are bound to shorten before teeing off.

The other top-class late-starter that strikes me as a decent trade is Anthony Kim at [18.0]. A fortnight ago, he seemed to be relentlessly marching towards favouritism when trading at odds-on for his third victory in a few weeks in Canada. A handful of ordinary rounds later though and his odds have held up nicely. Kim has already shown he can win on championship golf courses like Quail Hollow and Congressional, and his high ball flight is a crucial asset on these greens.

Its not just about the favourites for me though, as two of my Find Me a 100 Winner selections are right in the thick of it, Ken Duke and Rod Pampling. Duke managed an under-par start and I certainly wouldn't put anyone off backing him at the still attractive quote of [80.0]. Like the other late-starters, expect that price to shorten over the day.

It was pleasing to start the week with three winners from yesterday's four advised 3-ball bets. I'm having two more today, with Duke also rating the best 18-hole bet, at [2.66] to beat Robert Allenby and Simon Dyson. On all recent form, Duke would have to be a strong fancy to beat Dyson while Allenby started terribly with a 76. That was in keeping with the Aussie's poor record on extremely fast greens - see his consistent failure at Augusta for example - and I expect him to miss the cut. As long as Duke continues to keep the ball in play as usual, he has what it takes to hang around on this leaderboard.

Another late 3-ball that interests me involves Sweden's Richard Johnson, who recently won his first PGA Tour event. Though generally a lesser light, he comfortably outscored Hunter Mahan and Jerry Kelly on the opening day. Those two are now virtually certain to miss the weekend, and could struggle to stay motivated in very testing late-afternoon conditions whereas Johnson still has every chance of making the weekend. Moreoever, Kelly hasn't always looked the greatest trier when all is lost in the past, so [3.25] about the Swede could be a snippet of value.

US PGA Winner Market Selections:

Anthony Kim @ [18.5]
Jim Furyk @ [23.0]

US PGA 3-Ball Markets Selections:

Starting at 18.30 GMT+1: Ken Duke to beat Robert Allenby and Simon Dyson @ [2.66]
Starting at 19.10 GMT+1: Richard Johnson to beat Hunter Mahan and Jerry Kelly @ [3.25]