US PGA Betting Update : Poulter and Ernie can stay on to finish as 'best of the rest'

US PGA Championship / Paul Krishnamurty / 15 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Up for chasing a lost cause?

"Only seven shots separate the other 80 players, and the bunch around the head of the leaderboard 'without Woods' are well-matched big-names. There's little question that the 'Winner Without Woods' market is the one to play over the weekend."

At the half-way stage at Hazeltine, Paul Krishnamurty doesn't expect Tiger Woods to surrender his lead and is focusing his betting attention elsewhere...

With 36 holes left to play, this year's main contest for the Wanamaker Trophy appears to be a foregone conclusion after Tiger Woods surged to a four-shot lead at Hazeltine. Knowing how quickly and dramatically a golf tournament can change, I doubt the [1.27] on offer is one for the money-buyers, but it certainly isn't one for layers either. Tiger has led at the halfway stage of eight previous majors, and gone on to win every time.

That's rather a shame from a betting perspective, because if we removed Tiger it would leave the makings of a classic golf tournament. Only seven shots separate the other 80 players, and the bunch around the head of the leaderboard 'without Woods' are well-matched big-names. There's little question that the 'Winner Without Woods' market is the one to play over the weekend.

Hazeltine is getting tougher, as the scoring illustrates. Again, only three players beat 69 on Friday, re-inforcing my view that 'catch-up golf' will be very tough. My prediction is that second place will be won with a score around -5; a tough target for anyone currently over par. Our focus therefore should be on the 25 players currently between Even par and -3.

We're looking for players who have proven their ability to 'stay the distance' in tough majors. Conditions are hot, the greens drying out, making the weekend on this very long course a gruelling test of patience. The two that make most appeal are Ian Poulter at [18.0] and Ernie Els at [28.0].

Poulter is just a shot off second place, and has shown he is up for chasing lost causes on a tough major golf course before when finishing a gallant runner-up behind Harrington at the 2008 Open. Likewise, Ernie's ability in such circumstances is beyond question given his wonderfully consistent record. The Big Easy has made the top-5 in a major an incredible 20 times, including six times as runner-up.

The other obvious source of betting interest over the weekend lies in the 2-ball betting, with two of the early pairings offering Saturday's best value. In both cases, there is a slight doubt over the focus of the favourite, as discipline and determination look essential over this weekend.

Soren Hansen has serious off-course troubles at present with the Danish taxman, and that could affect his focus. His final round last weekend at Bridgestone was disastrous, though we can only speculate whether these distractions were a factor. Today, he faces a tough opponent anyway in Michael Sim, this year's best Nationwide Tour player, who is recommended at [2.4].

Phil Mickelson's off-course concerns have been well documented. Playing this week cannot be easy for him, especially given that his game clearly remains rusty. Even when on song over the years, Mickelson has proved a good player to oppose in 2-balls when out of contention, so in all of these respects Kevin Na looks a decent value bet at [3.0].

Selections:

Betting without Woods

Ian Poulter @ [18.0]
Ernie Els @ [30.0]

2-Balls

Starts 13.31: Michael Sim @ [2.4]
Starts 14.34: Kevin Na @ [3.0]