US PGA Championship / Paul Krishnamurty / 16 August 2009 / Leave a comment

Tiger didn't have it all his own way on day three but he's still on course for victory. However, the final round throws up plenty of betting opportunities and Paul Krishnamurty has got his eye on a trio of promising outsiders...

"Ishikawa may not have the fame of Rory McIlroy yet, but give him time. He is improving fast, as demonstrated by two wins in his last three Japanese Tour events."

With two major legends reminding Tiger that they weren't going down without a fight, 'moving day' at Hazeltine was more exciting than expected. Ultimately though, while Woods' four-shot lead was halved, the destiny of the season's final major remains almost a formality. Yesterday, Tiger was a [1.28] chance, now his odds are [1.34]. The chasing pack are more strung out, and it would seem that the only potential threats to Woods landing his fifth PGA title are Padraig Harrington and Y E Yang.

As Harrington's superb performance showed last night, he is capable of setting up another memorable showdown, but the number of plausible trading options in the outright market are limited. Therefore, the best final day betting opportunities may lie with the 2-balls. Yesterday, I advised two outsiders of which one obliged to turn an overall profit. I'm following a similar strategy today, with three outsiders taking the eye.

Starting Time: 14.12
Ryo Ishikawa @ [2.9] (vs Mickelson)

On the evidence of his seven rounds over the past fortnight, almost anybody left in this field would represent value at [2.9] against Phil Mickelson. Understandably after a summer plagued by personal troubles, his golf looks ragged and his focus elsewhere. Yesterday's 76 offered no encouragement, and I suspect the sooner this tournament is over, the better for Mickelson.

If there is one thing that might inspire him today, it is a match-up against one of the game's outstanding prospects; teenage sensation Ryo Ishikawa. He may not have quite the fame of Rory McIlroy yet, but give him time. Ishikawa is improving fast, as demonstrated by two wins in his last three Japanese Tour events.

Starting Time :17.48
Michael Allen @ [3.0] (vs Goosen)

Anyone who has witnessed Retief Goosen's recent final round efforts should not be surprised to learn that he ranks a miserable 170th in final round scoring on the PGA Tour. In the last six weeks, he's blown four golden opportunities to win. Perhaps it was the pressure, which won't apply here as he and Allen are well down the field. Nevertheless, he looks a dodgy short-priced favourite.

His opponent is enjoying his best season in a very long time, and not just on the Champions Tour where he's already won a major. The 50 year-old has put in some fine efforts recently against the younger men, making the top-15 in two strong PGA Tour events.

Starting Time: 18.33
Steve Flesch @ [2.9] (vs Westwood)

Westwood has played some great stuff this week, but now he's out of contention there are many others I'd rather rely on to produce their best in the final round. This particular event always tends to be gruelling due to the late-summer heat, and that may partly explain why Lee has never finished in a PGA top-10. He's fitter than he used to be, but has never looked as comfortable in the heat as his American peers.

Westwood's final rounds in the two previous US majors this season were just 79 and 73. Flesch on the other hand has hit 72 or better in the final round of this major four years in succession.

Tags: Golf Betting, Hazeltine, Lee Westwood, Michael Allen, Paul Krishnamurty, Phil Mickelson, Ryo Ishikawa, Steve Flesch, US PGA Golf Betting