US PGA Championship / Paul Krishnamurty / 09 August 2008 /

Unreliable Lefty is the only proven winner within five shots of the lead on one of the toughest courses ever seen in a major, says Phil Mickelson.

Besides the fact that Oaklands Hills isn't a links course, there are many comparisons to be drawn with last month's Open Championship. Like Birkdale, this course is one of the toughest ever seen in a Major, the type that can ruin a players' week in the space of half an hour. Only one player sits under par at halfway, and I doubt anyone will be near level par tomorrow night. In fact, anyone who can emulate the +3 winning total at the Open will take some beating.

And as we enter 'Moving Day', once again anyone can win. Nine shots separate those on the cut line and leader JB Holmes, so if any of those currently in last place could shoot 67 or better, they'll be right in the thick of it at the end of the day. Plus the scoring so far suggests we're going to see more dramatic changes on the leaderboard. On both days, the earlier starters did markedly better as they got the best of the greens, and with thunderstorms forecast for the afternoon, the leaders look bound to get the worst of the conditions.

Barely a cigarette paper separates the chances of the leading pack, too. Do we go for one of a trio of proven Major winners, Ben Curtis, Angel Cabrera or David Toms, despite none exactly enjoying a memorable 2008? Or one of the up and coming Americans, like Holmes, Brandt Snedeker or Sean O'Hair? Or an emerging 'future Major winner', like Justin Rose, Henrik Stenson, Aaron Baddeley or [9.0] tournament favourite Sergio Garcia?

The only proven Major winner within five shots of the lead is Phil Mickelson, still strongly respected in the market at [10.0], but as last weekend showed, he's hardly someone to be relied upon.

While it would be easy to manufacture an argument for backing any of that lot, I'd be lying if I said one stood out much more than the rest. Rather, taking into account the advantage of early start and potential for multiple interruptions later on, I'm searching for the players who can come from off the pace.

I'm looking through the 27 players currently between +4 and +6, and therefore within five and seven of the lead. Amongst this batch there are numerous class acts, at least one of whom is likely to hit an under-par round to resurrect their deteriorating prospects. Again, there's plenty to choose from, but after much contemplation I've settled around a batch of six players, whose combined odds equate to around [20.0]. My aim will be to lay the entire stake back should any of the six trade in single figures over the weekend, so should two of them shorten up sufficiently I'll be guaranteed an overall profit from the trade.

My six are headed by Ernie Els at [60.0], who often toils early in Majors only to be bang in contention when it matters, and I'm also pressing up on one of yesterday's disappointing selections, Antony Kim, again at [60.0]. In addition, I suggest Robert Karlsson at [130.0], Justin Leonard at [180.0] and rank outsiders Carl Pettersson and Brian Gay at [300.00]. The key with these four outsiders is that they are all tremendous putters, essential around this course.

A couple of 2-ball bets take the eye as well. Open champ Padraig Harrington has looked in fine touch again, and at 1.8 he rates a confident bet against Rory Sabbatini, whose form this season is vastly inferior. Rory's weekend record in the Majors is poor. He gets easily frustrated and has struck me as a 'non-trier' before when not in contention. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if he shot 80 today.

At the same price, Sean O'Hair also looks a solid favourite against fellow American Nicholas Thompson. Besides being the better player, and more experienced of these big weekends, O'Hair seems really determined at the moment as he battles hard to make the Ryder Cup team. He started the week one place outside qualification, so I expect nothing less than a focussed performance tonight.

Antony Kim @ 60.0
Ernie Els @ 60.0
Robert Karlsson @ 130.0
Carl Pettersson @ 300.0
Brian Gay @ 400.0

2-Balls

Padraig Harrington @ 1.8 (Start-time 17.20)
Sean O'Hair @ 1.8 (Start-time 18.40)

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