US PGA Championship / Tareq Quiroz / 12 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

One swallow doth not a summer make, says Tareq Quiroz. In other words, Padraig Harrington should never be second favourite for the US PGA Championship just because got back to form last week. And at [1.33] to make the cut at Hazeltine, TQ is a layer...

It might lack the kudos of the other majors, but a major the USPGA most certainly is. It is a tournament that has adapted to life as the fourth major but at the same time organizers have done a terrific job in raising its profile in recent years. Certainly anyone entering this year's event at Hazeltine is in it to win it.

There is always a lot of nonsense spoken about how this is a weak major and as such attracts slightly weaker winners. That is rubbish as there isn't a major out there that hasn't had a shock winner in recent years. This tournament has been played on slightly unsatisfactory courses but that hasn't been the case in a long time and Hazeltine is a fantastic layout.

In many ways we have two defending champions this week. With Tiger Woods aiming to win his third straight USPGA after missing the last one through injury and Padraig Harrington hoping to defend last year's triumph. They are the top two in the betting and most of the media talk will surround them.

Tiger is obviously the favourite but is very short at odds of around [2.96] following back-to-back wins. Short he is, but it is also a fair price as he has been in great form. The real scary thing though is that you get the feeling that he is just warming up. He gave a huge start to the field at the Buick and came through. Then he set his sights on running through the pack at the Bridgestone last week. I just get the feeling he was working on his game to try and secure this last major of the year. Watch out everyone because he won't be offering any free leads this time.

Whilst Tiger definitely justifies his position in the market I cannot say the same about his victim last week. Harrington put up a brave fight last week but it wasn't enough. Largely on the back of that he has been heavily supported for this week. One of the biggest mistakes you can make as a punter is to support a golfer solely on their previous performance. I am not saying it isn't an indicator but the value does not exist. Harrington at current odds of [27.0] is laughable.

I admire the Irishman for his determination to succeed but he has little chance of success this week. He played well at Firestone but his short game was in unbelievable shape and he holed a serious amount of clutch putts. I am still not convinced about his long game however. Yes, he hit some monster drives but what about the previous 50 weeks where he could barely find the course? A golfer does not turn his game around from bad to good just like that.

I would concede that the signs are better but that is as far as it goes. With all the hype now is the time to really take the Irishman on. Forget the Winner market, head to the Make The Cut market. You can lay Harrington to make the cut at odds of around [1.3] and I most certainly will be. If either of the first two rounds at Hazeltine are like the Harrington of the last year then he will be going home on Friday evening.

I can't get enough markets to oppose the man on! Padraig would struggle to be in the top 20 European golfers this last year yet he tops the market for Top European. Farcical. It is an insult to the likes of Lee Westwood that he heads this category. Harrington is the most successful European golfer major wise but when your game is in repair that means absolutely nothing. I thoroughly expect to see Lee Westwood near the top of the leaderboard this week and at around [8.0] I think he is a cracking bet for Top European.

Padraig Harrington is second favourite to win the USPGA! I just cannot get my head around one of the biggest travesties in a golf market for many a year. I thought the prices on Rory McIlroy were a joke at the US Open but they look positively generous compared to the ludicrous odds on offer for Harrington this week. I need to go and sit in a dark room where surely sense will prevail and when I start following the coverage on Thursday I will see it was all just a bad dream.

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