Three reasons to lay Tiger for the US PGA

US PGA Championship / Paul Krishnamurty / 11 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Tiger does occasionaly lose and this may be the week to take him on...

"Stuttering starts have cost Woods dearly in the season's biggest events. The three majors produced two never seriously in contention sixth placed finishes and a missed cut. In contrast, when finishing runner-up on this course in 2002, Woods had already bagged the Masters and US Open."

Tiger will go into Thursday's US PGA chasing a third win in a row and is priced at [2.94] to do so. Here are three factors to consider before pressing the lay button...

The course

There's no arguing with Woods' back-to-back wins over the past fortnight, except to say that victory was very predictable on both courses. His records at both Warwick Hills and Firestone were overwhelming superior to any of his rivals. Firestone in particular is one of his favourite venues, as Sunday's seventh title there illustrates.

However, it would be dangerous and simplistic to assume that he will automatically dominate at a different, less favourable venue. Were Woods to reproduce the inaccuracy off the tee shown throughout at many other venues, he would have been more severely punished and probably wouldn't have won.

That may well prove to be the case at Hazeltine, as my course preview explains. When the PGA was last held here in 2002, six of the first seven were short-hitting accurate types who repeatedly avoided the hazards.

His 'A Game' is still missing

It may seem churlish to look for holes in the form of a player who has won five events this season, including his last two, but when preparing to take odds of less than [3.0] there is no room for even the slightest doubt. Even during those victories, Tiger has only produced his 'A Game' in short patches, alongside other distinctly off-colour spells when he could barely find a fairway.

Stuttering starts have cost Woods dearly in the season's biggest events. The three majors produced two never seriously in contention sixth placed finishes and a missed cut. In contrast, when finishing runner-up on this course in 2002, Woods had already bagged the Masters and US Open.

He nearly always drifts in-running

For well over a year, laying Woods pre-tournament with a view to closing out in-running has proved a goldmine. Since returning from injury, the only time such a strategy would have lost money was in the recent A T & T National. In the last two weeks, Woods drifted out to [5.5] after his first round in the Buick Open, and traded at [7.4] and beyond before going on to win at Firestone.

Because he always starts at such a low mark, Woods needs to do an awful lot over the first 36 holes to dip below his starting price. A couple of early bogeys, or just a good start from one of his principal rivals and short-priced backers are in trouble.