US PGA Championship / Steven Rawlings / 10 August 2011 / 1

Our man outlines the factors that he thinks will determine the winner of the year's final major and given all the evidence, he fancies Watney might just Nick it...

"Glory's Last Shot" is the strapline for the year's final major and after a poor performance at both the US Masters and US Open and only a modest profit at the Open Championship; it feels a bit like that for yours truly.

The host course this week is the Highlands Course at the Atlanta Athletic Club in Georgia - a venue last used ten years ago when David Toms beat Phil Mickelson by a solitary stroke, kicking off a run of three almost impossible to predict results.

Toms had been a triple-figure price and he was followed in by the even more implausible pair of Rich Beem in '02 and Shaun Micheel in '03 but since then, baring Y E Yang's win two years ago, the winners have been fairly predictable.

I've attacked the event by looking at the following factors. Previous results at the course (2001 US PGA, 1981 US PGA and 1976 US Open), course changes and characteristics, previous event results, and current form. I'll start with the results...

When Toms won in 2001 he ranked tied 1st for putting, alongside 3rd placed finisher Steve Lowery. Runner-up, Mickelson ranked 5th and the 4th placed finisher, Shingo Katayama, ranked 3rd, so putting was far and away the most crucial stat.

Twenty years earlier, driving accuracy was the key stat, with the winner, Larry Nelson, and the runner-up, Fuzzy Zoeller, both ranking tied 1st for Driving Accuracy. They ranked tied 12th and tied 8th for putting. Unfortunately, I couldn't find any stats for the US Open in '76 but one trend that emerged from an analysis of all three results was the necessity to be up with the pace early on. Toms and Mickelson were in the top-three after every round and in '81, the first three home where always in the top dozen.

A striking factor from the 2001 result was the importance of Par 4 Performance. Toms played the par 4s in -10, Lowery -11 and Katayama -8. The vast majority of the field were nowhere near that good and there were even a couple of players in the top-ten (Jim Furyk and Scott Hoch) who played them in over par.

Since 2001 the par 70 course has undergone a few changes, it's been toughened up and lengthened to 7,467 yards and the greens have been changed from bent grass to Champion Ultra Dwarf Bermudagrass - a variety that should be better suited by the often soaring temperatures.

As previously stated, recent winners have been quality players and they've also been in-form. Ten of the last 11 winners had all won an event in the same season prior to winning this and since 2006, the Bridgestone Invitational has been played in the week before the US PGA Championship and every winner of this event had finished in the top-25 at Firestone seven days earlier.

Given all the above, I was looking for a great putter who's capable of bombing it off the tee (at nearly 7,500 yards, I'm struggling to see anyone short off the tee winning). They also need to perform strongly on the par 4s, have a win under their belt this term already and they needed to have finished in the top-25 last week. Quite a lot to ask for maybe but step forward Mr Nick Watney.

Nick ranks 2nd for Total Putting. He won the CA Championship at Doral, where the greens are now tifEagle Bermuda, so that's another box ticked. He ranks 25th for Driving Distance and 3rd for Par 4 performance. He has two wins this year, the aforementioned CA Championship and the recent AT & T National and he finished tied 23rd last week at Firestone. And just for good measure, lets add in the fact that he should have won this event last year after holding a three shot lead with a round to go and let's also add in the fact that he currently tops the FedEx Cup money list. For my money he's the best bet of the week at [36.0] and I was more than happy to get [40.0] about him on Sunday!

I was pleased to see that Nick's been allocated an early start on Thursday too, and I've added a few other bombers with a morning start on day one. Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson and Alvaro Quiros are all regular winners that get it out there off the tee and I've also followed Paul Krishnamurty in with Chris Kirk as my final pick.

Other than my wager on Watney, stakes are modest from the outset. As Paul points out here, it looks like this major could yet again suit the early pace setters and with that in mind I'll be attempting to build a nice portfolio early on in-running and I'll post an In-Play blog after each day's play. Until then, good luck everyone and come on Nick!

Selections
Nick Watney @ [40.0] (main bet)
Phil Mickelson @ [28.0]
Bubba Watson @ [60.0]
Alvaro Quiros @ [320.0]
Chris Kirk @ [410.0]

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1. Gary | 12 August 2011

   Steve , day1 : carnage hope you had a better day than me . Still I think Watneys still got something to say .

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