US PGA Championship / Steven Rawlings / 11 August 2009 / Leave a comment

Steve hasn't ventured too far from the front of the market for Glory's Last Chance at Hazeltine...

“I’ve now had a very decent bet on Mickelson and if he losses so be it but [30.0] is a truly great price.”

This week's sole event is the US PGA Championship, also known as 'Glory's Last Chance', staged this year at the Hazeltine National Golf Club, Chaska, Minnesota, a venue last used in 2002, when Rich Beem got the better of Tiger Woods.

Hazeltine was first used for the 1970 US Open, won by England's Tony Jacklin, but it was heavily criticised by most of the players and underwent plenty of changes after that, orchestrated by the legendary Rees Jones. It was next used for the 1991 US Open, won by the late, great Payne Stewart, where the course was this time praised by the players. It will also be the venue for the Ryder Cup in 2016.

After a spell of somewhat unpredictable results, where the likes of Sean Micheel and Rich Beem lifted the Wanamaker Trophy, the last five winners of the US PGA have all been relatively easy to find, and I see that pattern continuing this year.

I managed to get Tiger Woods onside on Saturday night, as he made his move through the field at the Bridgestone Invitational, backing him at an average of [3.5]. He's going for his third win on the trot in this event, having won in '06 and '07, and having missed last year's event due to his knee injury. He's also going for his third win in as many weeks and whilst I'm pleased to have got the bigger price, if I wasn't already on I'd still back him at around [3.0].

Woods will be desperate not to end 2009 majorless and will be as well suited to the lengthy Hazeltine course as anyone else in the field. If they played out the event three times he'd surely win it at least once. The price is fair, the morning tee-time on Thursday should be an advantage and I can see him starting well and not looking back.

My only other selection from the start is Phil Mickelson, who I first backed at the end of last month, once he'd announced his participation. I put more on than I wanted at an average of around [21.0] and then layed some back at [17.5]. This resulted in me backing him at an average of just over [25.0], and I was more than happy with the price. But after his lacklustre effort last week at the Bridgestone Invitational he's done nothing but drift and has even been matched at as high as [34.0]. I've had to go in again, this time at [32.0]; a price that I think is just crazy. He's now the same price as Lee (is that the winning line? no thanks!) Westwood!

What makes the drift so wrong is that it's absolutely nothing new for Lefty to underperform when out of contention, like he did last week. I know he has the distraction of his wife and mother's illnesses but that was the case at the US Open too and he traded odds on there and arguably should have won. I've now had a very decent bet on Mickelson and if he losses so be it but [30.0] is a truly great price.

Maybe I'm being a bit complacent but nobody else particularly interests me before kick off.

Selections:

Tiger Woods @ an average of [3.5]
Phil Mickelson @ an average of [27.0]

I'll post a daily update each morning, starting Friday, as the tournament and my betting portfolio develops.

Tags: Bridgestone Invitational, Hazeltine, Phil Mickelson, Rich Beem, Ryder Cup, Sean Micheel, Tiger Woods, US Open, US PGA Championship