US PGA Championship / Steven Rawlings / 14 August 2011 / 1

Our man takes a detailed look at the final round leaders and highlights his idea of the value...

11.00 - August 14, 2011

It isn't getting any easier is it!

This event has spooked me a bit and I'm like a rabbit in the headlights, scared to make a move. I did make one move yesterday though, and a bloody daft one at that!

Having been out all day, I didn't get settled and ready for action until the leaders were about to start and soon after switching the laptop on I made two very bad decisions. Firstly, I gawped too long at the incorrect price about Brendan Steele after he'd completed three holes in one under par. I assumed he was in trouble as I stared at a juicy lump available at [42.0] and [40.0] and waited for the bogey to register on the scoreboard. It didn't. Fed up about missing the [40.0], I nearly took [34.0] before he birdied the par five 5th. I didn't. And the rest, as they say, is history.

What I did do though, after seeing him make two nervy looking birdie putts on the first two holes, was lay back my wager on Jason Dufner at [21.0]. He now leads alongside Steele on -7. I could have been in a fantastic position with a round to go. I'm not. Am I happy? No.

And that was it. That was my entire activity yesterday evening. It just doesn't feel like a comfortable event to trade in and I'm being extremely cautious - too much so with hindsight.

What's really irritating is not being able to access any stats this week. On any other week I can analyse the previous rounds better and get a feel for which type of player I want to get onside but with no in-running stats available that's not easy and a bit frustrating.

As shown below, with current prices to back and current score, we now have a very tight market.

Steve Stricker @ [6.0] -4
Brendan Steele @ [6.6] -7
Jason Dufner @ [6.6] -7
Keegan Bradley @ [7.6] - 6
Scott Verplank @ [13.0] - 5
Adam Scott @ [22.0] -2
Anders Hansen @ [30.0] -3
Lee Westwood @ [30.0] -1
Charl Schwartzel @ [34.0] -2
Luke Donald @ [36.0] -1

[42.0] Bar

It's still a devilishly tricky puzzle to solve but here's my take on the contenders above.

Stricker - Winning a major at this stage in Steve's career would be a big deal indeed. It would be a fantastic story for the likable and popular Wisconsin native, who has already been voted the comeback player of the season twice in his career! I fancy he'll be very nervous but he may still manage to get it round in one or two under par - whether that will be enough is extremely debatable.

Steele - My idea of the likeliest winner. As a great driver, decent putter, and a winner this season (and on Bermuda greens), he ticked quite a few of the boxes I wanted ticking, as detailed in my preview. His long-handled putter is a negative though - nobody wielding a cheating stick has won a major yet. He looks as cool as a cucumber to me but this is a major and final round collapses are commonplace amongst experienced leaders, let alone inexperienced leaders.

Dufner - Great position and on top of his game but I don't fancy his nerves will hold. They haven't done in the past.

Bradley - Steele's big pal will benefit from playing in the penultimate group alongside old head Verplank. Like Steele, he too is a winner this season on Bermuda greens in Texas but he got very jumpy last week at the Bridgestone Invitational and a repeat of that performance wouldn't be a shock.

Verplank - The veteran diabetic did well against Phil Mickelson at the Shell Houston Open but needed a miracle finish last night to stay in touch and I can't see his nerve holding.

Scott - Looked understandably weary on Friday and more so yesterday. He has a lot to do and he's a poor price.

Hansen - He's shortened up since last night and I'm not surprised. Anders is very hard to get across the line but he has won Europe's biggest event (other than a major), the PGA at Wentworth, twice. He's been in great form all year and if his putter gets hot he could shoot three or maybe four under and that could well be enough, especially if he posts a score and those behind drop shots.

Westwood - Putting too poorly and too far back to back at such a short price.

Schwartzel - The Masters champ is more than capable of delivering a low final round and looks fairly priced, especially compared with the likes of Westwood, Stricker and Donald.

Donald - Clearly in the form of his life but he needs to be. He'll also need to play brilliantly right up to the end. Something he failed to do yesterday.

Summary - The winner could well come from outside of those detailed above, there are some very, very capable players lurking under par and I still haven't given up on Nick Watney on -1. My plan is to be patient and wait for the moves to develop. It may well pay to back someone once they've posted a score tonight, even if they're a few shots off the lead. The finish here is incredibly tough and nerves will make it even worse.

I've backed Steele at [6.4] for now as I think he'll shorten before he tees off but I may well dump the bet when he does start, just in case he starts very poorly. We'll see, more thought required maybe...

I'll be back tomorrow with my De-Brief. Good luck all.

10.20 - August 13, 2011

After a stunning opening round of 63 by the world number five Steve Stricker, the general census of opinion was that it was his event to lose. Well, he's had a good go.

With nobody from the morning starters making significant headway into his lead, Stricker shortened from around [3.6] to almost [3.0] before he'd even hit a ball and all was well until he three-putted the 3rd hole. From that moment on he put in a scruffy, nervy round, eventually shooting +4 and he now trails by two shots from surprise leaders Keegan Bradley and Jason Dufner - who shot 64 and 65 respectfully. Stricker still heads the market though, at around [9.0], and what we have now is a seemingly impossible tournament to call.

I had a dreadful day with my picks. Of all my selections, both pre-event and in-play, only Bubba Watson (who still looks a lost cause) managed to break par. Nick Watney and Phil Mickelson both looked to be getting involved before becoming victims of the treacherous 18th hole. Both made double-bogey.

Mickelson found water with his approach shot but what happened to Watney, I've no idea. Despite the fact he was on the fringe of contention all day yesterday I didn't see him play a shot until his missed bogey putt on the last. I saw plenty of shots by Tiger Woods and plenty of shots by numerous Brits and Europeans out of contention though! Not my idea of great coverage. At least we won't get inundated with Woods coverage over the weekend - unsurprisingly, he's missed the cut.

I only placed two bets yesterday, backing KJ Choi as he birdied the 1st hole and Jason Dufner before he birdied the last. Choi chipped in for another birdie on the 2nd hole but lost the plot after that and I don't hold out much hope for Dufner if I'm totally honest but [44.0] was too big at the time.

I wish I'd followed Paul Krishnamurty's advice yesterday - what a shout on Jim Furyk! Paul advocated a wager at a monstrous [330.0] yesterday and after shooting a five under par 65, Jimbo now trades at just [12.0]. And from what I saw yesterday, he managed to shoot that despite putting deplorably.

I suspect someone will do a Furyk tonight and steam into the mix from the pack, but heaven knows who and I'm doing nothing at this stage. I haven't given up on Watney or Lefty, or indeed Stricker and for now I'm going to leave things alone. I confess, the event hasn't panned out as I'd expected it to and I'm almost at a loss as to where to go from here. From experience, the best thing to do in such circumstances is nothing. It's dull maybe, but the plan is to just watch and wait for now.

09.20 - August 12, 2011

Experience, accuracy and patience were the requirements on day one and we're left staring at a first round leaderboard littered with veterans and accurate iron players. Length wasn't massively important but that might not be the case going forward. Matteo Manassero, playing in his first PGA and fresh off an excellent opening two under par 68, stated that a few tees were up yesterday. I doubt it'll get any easier.

I couldn't have asked for a better start from my big fancy for the week - Nick Watney. Three straight birdies was a far better start than I'd hoped for but the excitement didn't last long. A double-bogey at his 5th hole (the 14th) brought me back down to earth and then a triple-bogey at the 18th had me cursing. He ended his morning round on level par; seven shots shy of first round leader Steve Stricker.

Watney's not out of it yet and nor is Phil Michelson (on +1) but one of my other pre-event picks, Bubba Watson, looks doomed. Bubba bettered Watney when he rattled off four birdies in-a-row to get to -4 through just six holes and despite bogeying the tough 18th, -3 after his first nine holes was a fantastic start. He dropped seven shots on the front nine though (his back nine) and posted this to his Twitter account, "Rough finish today. I got to focus all 18 holes. Learn from today & get better for the future!!" It was very reminiscent of his first day's performance at the US Open and it was bloody frustrating!

The stories from the morning's play were Stricker's sparkling 63, which equalled the best ever first round in a major, and Tiger Woods' dreadful collapse. Stricker's now firmly in the driving seat whereas Woods, in all probability, will be going home tonight. Like my pair, he had started on the 10th hole and had started like a train, but it wasn't to last. After racing to three under par through five to share the early lead, Tiger's game fell apart and he finished up shooting 77. His worst ever start in a major.

The story of the afternoon's play was undoubtedly Rory McIlroy and his exploits with a tree! He played the most ridiculous shot off a tree root on the third hole and injured his wrist. It looked for all the world as though a withdrawal was imminent and he drifted right out to [160.0].

An MRI scan has revealed that he strained a tendon and he intends to carry on. He knows it was a daft shot to take on but he's gone up in my estimations. He played every shot with total commitment afterwards, even though clearly in pain and he rationalised his decision to carry on by pointing out that the next major isn't until next spring. The whole episode shows he needs to show more sense at times (or his caddy does) but it also shows he's as brave as a lion and only one thing matters to him - major titles.

As I'd outlined in my preview, the plan was to start building a portfolio early on and I've been fairly busy in-running, with mixed results. I managed to get Stricker onside at [12.0] and I've also got Jerry Kelly onside at [80.0] but I've but the mockers on a few others. All my bets are listed below.

Stricker is in a very commanding position right now and he's a perfectly fair price at [3.7]. He has won two of his last five starts, is suited by the lay-out and clearly on top of his game but someone will probably break out and get closer to him today. My job will be to try and catch any closers in-running and/or look to add to my Stricker wager at the right time.

He'll be hoping the leaderboard looks the same tonight because his best pal Kelly sits in second and if the pair can play together over the weekend it will help both considerably.

Finally, I think I better give up on my Top Asian bet. Poor ole Ryo shot 85! Apparently he's been ill!

Selections:

Nick Watney @ [40.0] (main bet)
Phil Mickelson @ [28.0]
Bubba Watson @ [60.0]
Alvaro Quiros @ [320.0]
Chris Kirk @ [410.0]

In-Play Bets

Round one

Steve Stricker @ [12.0]
Simon Dyson @ [55.0]
Jerry Kelly @ an average of [80.0]
Ryan Palmer @ [110.0]
Ben Crane @ [270.0]
Jonathan Byrd @ [320.0]

Round two

Jason Dufner @ [44.0]
KJ Choi @ [50.0]

Round three

Jason Dufner Layed back at [21.0]

After round three

Brendan Steele @ [6.4]

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1. Mike N | 12 August 2011

   Great assessment Steve.

   Ryo might have been ill, but he's not as sick as I am after following you in with that Top Asian bet.

   And to add further insult to injury, I've just backed Nick Watney (proably the last thing you wanted to hear given the hex I put on players).

   I've added Karlsson and Cink also, no reason, just needed a few more wagers :-)

   Agree entirely about Rory. Stupid shot, course management at its worst, but incredibly brave of him to carry on and play the shots he did. Tremendous stuff.

   And where do we start with Tiger? 18 months ago I got criticised for saying he will never be the same player again. Plenty of years left for him to return to his best but I'd say I've been more than justified with my sentiments.

   Good luck today Steve.

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