Playing The US PGA Odds: Victory Margin market

US PGA Championship / Steven Rawlings / 11 August 2009 /

" class="free_bet_btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">

The wait is nearly over...

"My conclusion is that the most likely scenario and possible value play is that for the third year running the victory margin will be 2 strokes."

After a little research Steve plays the percentages and goes for three on the spin...

Having profited from the Victory Margin market at both the British Open and US Open, I thought I'd take another look this week, using the same rather basic system, by looking back over the last 30 years to see if any patterns emerge.

As a result, I would certainly steer well clear of '4 Strokes'. Nobody has won by that margin since way back in 1981, when Larry Nelson got the better of Fuzzy Zoeller and there hasn't been a three shot margin for 17 years.

The most popular margins over the last 30 years have been a play-off and two strokes. There have been seven occurrences of each of those scenarios, or in other words, 23.3% of the time there's been a play-off and 23.3% of the time someone has won by two shots. The market still hasn't settled down but early indications are that a play-off is likely to be at least a point shorter than the price for a two shot margin and if you can get [5.0] or more about that scenario it looks the value play.

But what about if Tiger Woods gets on a roll and he just steamrolls the field like he did at Medinah in 2006, where he won by five? Well that could happen, he certainly looks in the mood, but that was the only occasion that anyone has won by more than two strokes in the last ten years and I don't think there'll be enough value there. Besides, I've backed Woods to win the event anyway and I'd be surprised if anyone else achieves the feat.
.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>