Find Me A 100 Winner: USPGA Championship special!

US PGA Championship / Paul Krishnamurty / 09 August 2011 / 1

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Chris Kirk has the game to conquer Atlanta Athletic Club and he's a huge price to do so

"Interestingly, Kirk tops the PGA Tour stats on approaches between 175 and 200 yards, which will be a popular distance on this layout."

It's the final major of the year and, as it's a big one, Paul Krishnamurty makes four picks - ranging in price from [110.0] to a monster [410.0]...

It is hard to recall an event where there are so many high-class candidates within our triple-figure price range. While none of the following came in for serious consideration here, for a various reasons, one had to look twice to check World Matchplay champ Ian Poulter's [280.0] odds, Paul Casey and Ernie Els at [240.0], or most eye-catching of all, Graeme McDowell at [160.0]. Six months ago, Gmac would have been challenging for favouritism!

The same could be said about dozens of players at either end of the market. It would seem that, with golf more wide open than ever before, layers are over-reacting on an almost weekly basis. One good week and a player's odds halve, (see all of Sunday's principal candidates). One bad week, and world-class obvious contenders become rank outsiders.

Take the first of this week's four picks, KJ Choi. He was heavily backed before the last two majors, following a career-best victory at Sawgrass and another strong challenge in the Masters. With eight PGA Tour titles, he is one of the most prolific winners without a major to his name. Yet just because he struggled at Firestone, a course where he'd never previously made the top-ten, Choi is suddenly a [110.0] chance. Even despite slight doubts that the course might be longer than ideal, these odds are way too big. If he can contend three times at Augusta, another long course with fast, treacherous greens, KJ can contend at Atlanta Athletic Club.

Martin Laird did this column proud last week, hitting the first lay target and contending for three days, and deserves to be retained at [140.0]. Sure he played poorly on Sunday, but Laird proved his pedigree with victory at Bay Hill, so it was unlikely to have anything to do with a lack of bottle. More likely is he just hit one bad round. As explained seven days ago, Laird has the ideal high ball-flight for typically hot, dry, fast summer US conditions, and tends to thrive around this time of year. That should be an even greater asset at Atlanta than it was at Firestone.

Nobody illustrates the market's irrationality better than Sean O'Hair. After a poor season, victory in the Canadian Open on his penultimate start prompted his odds to collapse ahead of Firestone to around [60.0]. One failure later, and he's back out to [210.0]. The correct mark is probably somewhere in the middle of that huge range, perhaps even shorter given numerous strong credentials for this test. Arguably his best career efforts came on tough courses with Bermuda greens - winning the Pods Championship, finishing second to Tiger at Bay Hill and third in the Tour Championship at nearby East Lake. O'Hair has also twice made the top-15 at the Masters, despite being seriously handicapped by relative inexperience there.

Finally, an in-form rank outsider - [410.0] chance Chris Kirk - who has been arguably this season's most promising rookie, and won the lower grade Viking Classic last month. Previously he was eighth at probable future major venue Aronimink, and his best effort came when runner-up on very fast greens in the Houston Open, behind a peak-form Mickelson. Interestingly, Kirk tops the PGA Tour stats on approaches between 175 and 200 yards, which will be a popular distance on this layout.

The trading advice is to stake a total of five units, before placing two lay orders on each player at [8.0] and [3.0]. Should any one of our quartet hit the first lay target, we'll double our money.

Place order to lay all players 10u @ [8.0]
Place order to lay all players 20u @ [3.0]

2011 Updated Stats: -11u

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Anonymous | 09 August 2011

Andres Romero looks interesting at 110.

He shot 65 to finish 4th in the final round of the Greenbrier Classic, which is also par 70. He was 3rd the week before.

He's also 3rd in Par 4 Birdie or Better stats...

With only two par 5's, if he can keep it on the fairway, he's got a great chance on such a fast course.