US PGA Championship / Editor / 08 August 2007 /

Betfair's golf expert Tareq Quiroz can't see past Tiger for the year's final major

The 89th US PGA Championship rocks up in Tulsa, Oklahoma this week, and you can be sure that the players will be preparing to undergo the most thorough of examinations. The course at Southern Hills puts a premium on accuracy with pinpoint iron play an absolute must. These 18 holes offer a true test of the finest golfers in the world and come Sunday we will be crowning a worthy PGA Champion.

So before punting where should you start? With 156 golfers competing, elimination is the key to narrowing down the field. And there are many factors to consider when doing this: recent form, course form, majors form, the weather forecast, injuries and players' states of mind gleaned from recent interviews - all contribute in the decision making process.

Oklahoma State University product Hunter Mahan is a man in form with a recent win and three other top 10's; Goosen won at this course in 2001 so will have great memories of the place; Tiger's major form is exceptional; Quigley loves the heat and as part of his training he incorporates an hour-and-a-half power yoga session in a 95-degree room; Furyk missed last week with a bad back. Using these kind of factors as a guide, be strict in the elimination process until you have cut the field down to just a few likely contenders.

Whatever eliminating you've done, I'd wager that a certain Mr Woods remains on your shortlist. His recent statement - "You never want to have a year where you don't win a major" - shows his intention is clear. Tiger is dangerous at all times, but a hungry Tiger is even more so. With greater determination and focus than ever, the 12-time major champion and world number one is coming off an emphatic eight stroke victory in the WGC Bridgestone Invitational. He is in imperious form and is incredibly hard to look beyond - though the current price of 3.2 (11-5) is super tight.

If you're still not convinced about Tiger, then it's time to look at another player that made your cut. Looking down my shortlist I see Justin Rose's name, a player still under-rated in the market and certainly meriting a wager. His compatriot Ian Poulter may be flash, but his iron play is excellent, and I expect a big show from him this week too. Winner's market aside, there are other interesting places to put your money.

One that has really caught my eye is the winning score. There's a general feeling that 6 or 7 under par will be the mark. I feel this is largely based on the most recent course form from the 2001 US Open, when Retief Goosen prevailed with a winning score of 4 under. The course will not be set up as severely this week, and I expect a winning score of around 10 or 12 under par making the 9 under par or lower option on the market a very attractive proposition.

Hole-by-hole is one of the real niche markets on offer and I'm a big fan. You can bet right up until the final putt is sunk what you think the player will score on that hole. My strategy is to concentrate on the par fours, wait until the player finds the fairway and lay the par. More often than not you can get an artificially low price on the selection that was already favourite prior to the tee shot. It only needs a good shot for a birdie chance or a poor shot that requires a good up and down for you to lock in a profit. However you approach this market it will certainly keep you entertained throughout the round.

It's not only the golf that's expected to be red hot in Tulsa this Sunday. Temperatures are forecast to soar close to 100 degrees, so only the fittest - both mentally and physically - will finish the tournament with a decent score. Potentially the hottest major in history, mental toughness and concentration will be paramount. These testing conditions give yet another factor to consider, and one that points strongly, unsurprisingly, in favour of the world's number one. No matter which elements you consider, or angle you look from, for me there appears only one conclusion: Tiger taking home that elusive 13th major.

Wherever you're watching, settle back and enjoy what promises to be a scorching final major of 2007. It's going to be a great 72 holes from Tulsa!

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