US Open Betting Portfolio: Woods and Lefty head home challenge

US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 03 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty runs the rule over the leading US contenders

I'm sure its a matter of great consternation to Americans that not only have they become Europe's whipping boys in the Ryder Cup, they also struggle to win their own national Open nowadays. It's now five years since the last home US Open winner, a tournament they used to own. Help may be at hand, though, with the choice of Torrey Pines South Course as this year's venue. As I've argued elsewhere http://betting.betfair.com/golf/golf-events/us-open/us-open-betting-portfolio-woods-still-bet-of-the-y-020608.html, as long as he is fully fit and prepared following knee surgery, everything is tailored towards a runaway Tiger Woods victory.

Phil Mickelson played high-school golf at Torrey Pines, and as always holds a very serious chance in this tournament. I suspect its the greatest disappointment of Mickelson's career that he hasn't won a US Open yet, especially having finished runner-up four times. The last of those, two years ago at Winged Foot, will have hurt the most having led down the last hole and trading at [1.05].

He's still young enough though, and having won a fortnight ago at Colonial, Mickelson arrives close to peak form. His course management has improved considerably in the last four years, meaning he now has the full set of US Open essential requirements. In particular, his magical short game in a tournament where scrambling for par becomes routine is a priceless asset, guaranteed to save him several shots on most of the field. I really can't see him being outside the top-10.

Below that front pair, obvious American contenders are few and far between. They have five in the world's top-12, but besides Woods and Mickelson only Jim Furyk has ever won a major or consistently challenged in them. Furyk has been an extremely reliable punt in this event, winning in 2003, and finishing runner-up for the last two years.

I've never felt less confident about his US Open chances than this time though. Furyk has yet to really fire on all cylinders this year, with three top-10s a very moderate return by his standards. Furthermore, the one weakness that has kept Furyk out of the elite is that he doesn't drive the ball far enough. If there's one US Open venue that threatens to magnify that weakness, its Torrey Pines, the longest course on the PGA Tour.

I have similar concerns about Steve Stricker's suitability for the course, having never finished better than 28th place in nine events at Torrey Pines. In contrast, Stewart Cink finished third at the Buick Invitational back in January, one of numerous high finishes in his most consistent season to date. Earlier in his career, Cink performed very impressively in the US Open, and would have made a play-off in 2001 but for missing a tiny putt on the final hole. He's at just about the right stage in his career to break through in a major, and rates a very attractive trade at [65.0].

Outside of those, few of the well-known experienced Americans stand out. Their challenge is as likely to come from a group of emerging young players. Antony Kim [70.0] and Sean O'Hair [160.0] are both outstanding prospects who've already won this year, with Kim's runaway victory at Quail Hollow making a particularly big impact. And at [150.0], I reckon Brandt Snedeker is a decent trade to make amends for falling apart on the last day of the Masters. Snedeker is at his best on tough golf courses, and played really well to finish third in the 2007 Buick, one of his very first main tour starts.