US Open / Dan Geraghty / 15 June 2011 /

The Europeans are on a high and the Americans have never been weaker - so goes the current thinking in golf - but will the home favourites really roll over this week? Never, says our regular PGA Tour watcher Dan Geraghty

American golf is fighting a losing battle with their European counterparts BUT what better place to start the fightback than their national Open? There are reasons to oppose numbers one (Luke Donald) and two (Lee Westwood) in the world. Despite his improved length, the monster course (7,568 yards) could be too long for the former, and this weeks energy sapping defence of the St Jude could account for the latter. World number three Martin Kaymer has had caddy issues and his season thus far has been uncharacteristically sloppy. Graeme McDowell was the first European to win the US Open for 40 years, I don't expect the second to occur so soon after.

My friends, it is time for America to stand up and be counted.

Step forward Mr Phil Mickelson ([17.0] to win this week), the door is ajar. Phil deserves the US Open title he craves. Lefty has been so close in the past; he's been second an incredible five times. I have to believe it's his destiny to win one and I'm not sure he'll get a better opportunity than this week. We're told the rough isn't as penal as it has been at recent US Opens, Congressional suits Phil's high ball flight and there's no Tiger to contend with. I'm shocked Phil isn't the favourite, he has the best US Open form in the field, has won this year and his game ticks all the right boxes for this week.

Dustin Johnson [26.0] won't be losing any sleep over this week's lengthy course. Last year Dustin showed himself to be a Major championship golfer, he finished 8th at the 2010 US Open despite shooting a mind boggling 82 in the final round and went on to lose last years PGA Championship after a devastating final hole penalty. This year he's not yet reached the high standards that he's set for himself but perhaps the thrill of a Major is exactly what he needs, his price has been steadily contracting.

Bubba Watson [50.0] is an absolute must for me this week. He's been one of my favourite players for a long time, is currently second in this years FedEx cup and he ranks second and first in (arguably) the most important two stats this week, driving distance and greens in regulation. Ok, his very recent form could be a little better but I'm amazed to see him bigger than [34.0] on a layout that should be right up his street.

Steve Stricker [26.0] is not as long off the tee as those mentioned so far but he is a recent winner and he does already have a win at Congressional to his name, I'm going to leave him alone personally but he's a must for any shortlist.

Hunter Mahan [26.0] is a popular pick as usual but I find it hard to warm to the American whose short game is often exposed. However, like Bubba, Mahan's GIR stats are fantastic, he's in great form and is another dangerous home player.

Nick Watney [27.0] has been threatening to become the new American superstar. He has seven top-tens from his 11 appearances this year but needs to up his win tally to take it to the next level.

Matt Kuchar [27.0] is the only US player with more top-tens to his name that Watney this year but struggles to win as much as he should.

The US Open obviously sets up well for past champion Lucas Glover [95.0] and his recent win will have boosted the bearded wonder's confidence. A good week awaits.

Gary Woodland [130.0] may find his ability to scramble tested to the limit but the proud American (JOCK) will no doubt be eager to do well in his National Open and I have a feeling he'll go well.

Rickie Fowler [85.0] Jesus wept, I can't even begin to estimate how many birdies and bogeys our orange friend will have this week. Perhaps it's best to buy birdies/bogeys on the spreads. No, no, stick to Betfair, we'll get him onside in the top 10 market.

Recommended Bets
Outright: Phil Mickelson [17.0]
Top Five: Dustin Johnson [7.8], Bubba Watson [12.0]
Top 10: Rickie Fowler [8.4]
Top 20: Gary Woodland [5.2]

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