US Open / Romilly Evans / 14 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Justin Rose is set for an early bloom at Congressional, according to Romilly Evans, but who else makes the cut in his look at the likely pacemakers for the first-round lead at the US Open?

Call me a traditionalist but Powerplay Golf, the new two-flag initiative designed to do for golf what the Twenty20 set-up did for cricket, isn't going to work. Pull the campaign now. True, the game sometimes struggles to sustain the channel-hopping viewer of limited attention-span with its typical 72-hole format. But ask the stellar field assembled at Congressional Country Club for this week's US Open for an off-the-record response, and the vast majority will concur. You won't exploit the modern world's quick-fix culture by re-inventing the wheel.

Instead, simply look at one-round shootouts. Punters are way ahead of the game, having long since been able to enjoy - and occasionally profit - from the merits of the first-round leader market. It's a good old-fashioned cavalry charge, with one small snag: many of the runners are jockeying for position before the weekend, instead of trying to actually top the leaderboard after 18 holes. Every player is trying, of course, but some of the big boys can err on the side of caution if they've managed to position themselves among the leaders.

For example, if Lee Westwood puts himself in contention early doors, rather than push to take the clubhouse lead, he will invariably employ a fairways-and-greens strategy to keep himself in position. In US Open week (when players are terrified of making a mistake in the USGA's house of horror shows) this inclination is only exaggerated. And while that can prove a wise decision if you've backed him outright, it's slightly frustrating if you're on him for first-round leader.

For this reason, I prefer to stay away from backing the market leaders. Quotes of around [20.0] to back make little appeal for value-hunters in what is self-evidently a wide-open affair. All these guys, bar the handful of amateurs, can go low on any given day - especially a Thursday when the pressure's at its least intense. More telling trends to examine include first-round scoring averages, particularly in the majors, which highlight the golfers who aren't afraid to light it up on the big stage, attacking the course when pin positions are generally at their most benign.

Further, the history of any tournament recounts that the first-round leader consistently materialises from the morning wave of players who get the chance to attack the course when it's at its most receptive, and its greens un-spiked by the marauding masses. By contrast, the afternoon wave are often scuppered on the rocks of rising winds, pitch marks and firmer greens. Of course, a lopsided weather forecast can render such a bias redundant. However, the long-range forecast for the Washington area predicts no freak squalls or plagues of locusts. More prosaically, temperatures are anticipated to rise on a Congressional course which is already firm and fast, placing a premium on control into greens that will crust up badly as the opening round wears on.

Congressional itself has been substantially lengthened since the year's second major last visited the US capital. Now standing at a whopping 7,500 yards from the professional tips, mainly gained through the introduction of seven new tee boxes, big hitters will again be rewarded. Provided they can keep it on the straight and narrow.

Right then, factoring in all of the above, let's play Guess Who will be the first round leader. We want a bomber who isn't among the favourites, who has a proven record of going low and enjoys an early tee-time on Thursday.

Three names make my hitlist. The first is Ernie Els, champion here in 1997, and his return will feel like a defence of sorts. The affable South African has struggled for form with the flat-stick since winning his national championship, but he put in a more promising performance at Memorial, his warm-up event. Excellent iron-play, coupled with long and accurate driving characterised his statistics and, at [95.0] to back, I'm prepared to chance that his putting stroke will return armed with a new belly putter and on a course which evokes warm and fuzzy memories.

Paul Casey is similarly talented and priced around [75.0] to back. His formidable forearms send the ball monstrous distances and can even cope with the knee-high rough, should he stray from the fairway. He started well last season at Pebble Beach, and his 66 at Oakmont in 2007 (albeit in round two) is regarded by some as possibly the finest 18 in any US Open.

Finally, throw in Justin Rose for an early bloom to stardom at [70.0] to back. Like Casey, the Englishman has been somewhat overlooked in the wake of his compatriots' success. But he too appears to be due a renaissance if his putter behaves. Rose himself believes it can happen at Congressional: "I'm playing beautifully, second in greens in regulation this year, and I love this track." He's also perennially excelled in first-round scoring, especially at the majors.

So that's my trio against the field to make a quick killing in round one. Here's hoping they prolong our attention span into the small hours.

Recommended Bets
Back Justin Rose @ [70.0] for the US Open first round lead
Back Paul Casey @ [75.0] for the US Open first round lead
Back Ernie Els @ [95.0] for the US Open first round lead

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