US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 10 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Defending champ's experience should be too hot for debutant Romero says Paul Krishnamurty.

Though a different course is used every year for the US Open, this major always has the same characteristics. The USGA always demand a penal set-up, with no escape for wayward drives. Because its always played in June, the courses are usually hard and fast, with the greens dry and virtually impossible to hold over the weekend. Birdies are few and far between and patience an essential attribute. And as I've written elsewhere http://betting.betfair.com/golf/golf-events/us-open/us-open-betting-tamers-of-torrey-pines-are-few-and-120508.html , Torrey Pines is the longest PGA Tour course and promises to be the most penal US Open venue ever.

Usually this means good news as far as speciality betting is concerned. It's easy to find players who rarely or never prosper in US Opens, and by the same token there are several specialists in the event. My nap is a tournament matchbet on defending champion Angel Cabrera to finish ahead of his younger compatriot Andres Romero. Cabrera may have been an unlikely winner, but his record in this major was always respectable. He's made every US Open cut this century, and even if the extra burden of media commitments make a re-run even less likely, I'm sure he'll be determined to keep that good run going.

In contrast, Romero is making his US Open debut and Torrey Pines could be a baptism of fire for this fine prospect. On a certain type of golf course, make no mistake Romero is a winner. But this isn't the type of venue where his ultra-attacking game is likely to produce dividends. There's not much point being a birdie-machine when the name of the game is scrambling pars. Romero is an extremely inconsistent character, finishing outside the top-40 on seven of his nine 2008 PGA Tour starts, but winning and making the Masters top-10 in the other two. I fear this will be one of the bad weeks, and expect him to run up some big scores and miss the cut badly.

The place markets could also offer a solid route to profit. In particular, the top-10 market is arguably 'easier' to sort out in this kind of event than the usual weekly fare because of the very distinct nature of the test. Certain types are unlikely to ever master it - see for instance the miserable tournament records of otherwise top-class players like Stuart Appleby and Rory Sabbatini. Rank outsiders rarely get into serious contention either and usually the top-10 is largely made up of predictable candidates and US Open specialists.

The pair I like in the top-10 market are Stewart Cink and Mike Weir at [4.4] and [6.0] respectively. Taking 2008 form literally, Cink should be 2.0 because he's made the top-10 in exactly 50% of his tournaments. Of course the US Open field has greater depth, but then again he finished 3rd on this course back in January. Furthermore, 6th in the 2007 Open and 3rd at this year's Masters suggest that after some under-achieving seasons, Cink is very much ready to make his mark in the majors.

Weir is by any definition a US Open specialist. The former Masters champion has made the top-6 in three of the last five renewals, and the top-20 in six of the last eight. Considering he seemed right back to his best when finishing second in his last tournament at Muirfield Village nine days ago, [6.0} to make the top-10 looks a huge price.

Finally, while it breaks my heart to say it, Ernie Els could be a decent bet to miss the cut at odds around [3.5.] Ernie's pair of US Open wins in the 1990s remain two of my very favourite sporting and gambling moments, for which I'll be forever grateful. But his recent form is dire, missing five of his last seven cuts and finishing a distant 75th in one of the others where no cut was made. Torrey Pines is not going to take any prisoners and I seriously doubt Els' long game or current state of mind will be up to the test.

SPECIALITY BETS PORTFOLIO

ANGEL CABRERA [1.87] (VS ROMERO) - TOURNAMENT MATCHBET
STEWART CINK [4.4] - TOP-10 FINISH
MIKE WEIR 6.0 - TOP-10 FINISH
LAY ERNIE ELS TO MAKE THE CUT [1.4]

Tags: Andres Romero, Angel Cabrera, Ernie Els, Mike Weir, Stewart Cink, Torrey Pines, US Open