US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 23 June 2009 / 1 Comments

Lucas Glover traded at [410.0] on his way to winning the US Open - joining Shane Lowry, Danny Lee and Christian Cavear on 2009's list of unlikely winners - but Paul Krishnamurty is not throwing the formbook out just yet.

When this year's US Masters produced a play-off between three players starting above [100.0], it represented one of the least likely leaderboards in a major for many a year. In comparison to the bizarre happenings we have just witnessed at Bethpage Black, that was easy. At least there were sensible arguments for backing Angel Cabrera or Kenny Perry at Augusta.

It's hard to remember a stranger result at any level of the game. Not just because Lucas Glover, a capable PGA Tour player if a generally unconsidered [400.0] chance, won the tournament. That was vaguely plausible. Rather it's the fact that [1000.0] chances Ricky Barnes and David Duval also finished joint second. Most layers would have been happy to lay ten times that price if it were possible on the exchange.

Besides any super-tipsters who foresaw any of those three, it was another miserable weekend for form-book students; the latest in a long run. Three of the previous four European Tour winners; Shane Lowry, Christian Cevear and Jeppe Huhldahl; had traded at over [500.0] pre-tournament, amongst the nine 2009 winners in Europe to have started at [100.0] or better. Only one of this year's champions started at less than [25.0].

So what is going on, and does this mark a significant trend? The first thing that should be said is that Bethpage produced a very strange major in general, because of the terrible weather. Half the field were badly disadvantaged by an early start, and most crucially the soft, receptive greens acted as a leveller, robbing the US Open of one of its core characteristics. Bethpage remained a very tough course, but there was an element of target golf about the whole affair. Rank outsiders are far less likely to contend at a more typical hard and fast major venue.

Nevertheless, this doesn't explain the wider trend in Europe, nor the fact that the Masters has produced three consecutive shock winners after previously being the most predictable major. And when the US Open was held at Bethpage in 2002, despite similarly soft conditions due to rain, the biggest names dominated a well-strung out leaderboard.

In my view, there are three significant developments. The first is well-known, that better technology has enabled more players to compete in the driving distance department and improve their ball control. The second is simply that the gap between the top-200 or so has narrowed.

As the rankings suggest, Woods and Mickelson are markedly superior to the rest. But below them, everything is up for grabs and almost any player can realistically aim to break into the top-20. See, for instance, how Paul Casey has leapt up from 42nd to third in a matter of months. The top-50 is littered with players who once upon a time were regularly available at enormous prices on the Euro Tour or even lower. I can remember backing the current world no.6 Geoff Ogilvy at 150/1 in a low-grade Australasian Tour event only eight years ago. Jeev Milkha-Singh is another vast improver; now a prolific winner but for years an unconsidered outsider beyond Asia.

Thirdly, there is the quite astounding growth of the game since Tiger, with the result a never-ending conveyor belt of great potential. It has become impossible to keep track of all the brilliant youngsters in the game. That doesn't apply to the US Open result, but it does explain how amateurs like Lowry or Danny Lee were apparently unfazed against the professionals.

It also explains why European Tour events have become so wide open, with the favourite always in double figures and regularly available at up to [18.0]. Whereas the Euro scene was once dominated by half a dozen players, with another 25 occasional challengers, now there are at least 50 players in every event that can win. Perhaps more if these results are to be believed.

The lesson to learn, I think, is that these 'no-hopers' can win nowadays, and we shouldn't be quick to dismiss them or to automatically lay them in-running. But we also shouldn't allow this recent run of bizarre results to curb our enthusiasm for the formbook. Normal service will be resumed at some stage. On which note, I'm going to make a bold prediction. This week will finally see a change of luck for favourite backers, and the winner of the BMW International Open will come from the first six in the betting, all of whom are under [20.0].