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US Open Odds: England expects as Europeans bid to end US Open hoodoo

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Paul Krishnamurty runs through the chances of the European contenders for the next major in the calendar - Torrey Pines, June 12th

Now I know that its become a bit of a cliche to say the ever-growing and apparently ever-stronger European contingent under-achieve in the Majors, but in the US Open the situation is simply ridiculous. Despite all the successes in recent decades in the Masters, Open and Ryder Cup, it is an incredible 38 years since Tony Jacklin became the last European to win the US Open.

There are some mitigating factors, even if they only go so far in explaining this bleak run. Played in the summer heat, on dry, fast greens with penal, often localised rough, this is very much an American experience. Underachievement was certainly understandable when only a few Europeans played the PGA Tour with any regularity, but nowadays there's up to 30 Europeans playing there every week so acclimatisation problems are a weak excuse.

The situation becomes more galling when we look at recent winners. European-based players won four of the eight US Opens this century, yet none were actually European. The year Retief Goosen won the first of his two titles at Southern Hills (2001), he was 100/1 for the Order of Merit. Michael Campbell certainly had shown plenty of class prior to Pinehurst in 2005, but there must have been at least a dozen higher-ranked Europeans at the time. Last year's winner, Angel Cabrera was of a similar standard - a regular contender on the European Tour, but nobody ever suggested he was the best at that level.

How must Order of Merit winners such as Montgomerie, Westwood and Harrington have felt when they saw these players beat them to their first major? At least in Pod's case he quickly got that monkey off his back at our Open. But for Monty especially, not a player known for shrugging off frustration with a smile, it must have been hard to take. He more than any other must curse his luck in this particular major. Four times he's held a massive chance down the back-nine only to fall just short. The last time at Winged Foot in 2005 will give him sleepless nights for ever more, as that one really was his to lose and without doubt, he bottled it.

Monty's day at this level surely came and went that day at Winged Foot, and our best hopes now lie with a talented bunch of 20 and early 30-somethings. They have rather a point to prove after a miserable surrender in the season's opening major. English quartet Justin Rose, Ian Poulter, Paul Casey and Lee Westwood all looked strong contenders in-running, yet none held on to a top-10 finish when it mattered.

The leading Europeans in recent US Opens have been Sergio Garcia and Padraig Harrington. Both have solid records in the event, without ever looking like winning it. Garcia has twice made the top-four, and at his best has the long game to conquer any course no matter how brutal. The brutal the better in fact as it emphasises those long game skills and lessens the negative effect of his amateur-standard putting. Garcia's win at the Players' Championship was unexpected for sure but who knows it will have done for his confidence.

After the Spaniard, Harrington is very much the best European hope. Now a major winner, Pod's next career target will be to increase his presence in US majors. So far, so good, with fifth at the Masters a fine effort, and with four previous US Open top-10s he's bound to have plenty of supporters at odds around [27.0].

This pair may have the best recent records, but I would be more inclined at this stage to give the English boys another chance, with Westwood, Casey and Luke Donald my three leading European three picks. Currently trading at [60.0], Donald has yet to seriously feature in a US Open, which is surprising given his accurate long game. All that could change this year though because of the venue. Donald has a fine recent record at Torrey Pines, finishing runner-up in 2005 and 2006 and never outside the top-25.

Westwood hasn't done anything in a US Open since 2000 when finishing fifth at Pebble Beach. Previously in the late-90s he was widely touted as a potential winner of this major, after finishing 19th and seventh on his first two tries. That was the peak period of his career to date, and its only really in the last year that Westwood has consistently returned to his best. Attractively priced at [100.0], there is a strong case that this experienced class act is well overdue a major breakthrough.

As for [90.0] chance Casey, if his driving accuracy stands up, Torrey Pines is made for him. Brute strength will be a big asset around this long course, with only the very strongest being able to manufacture routes from rough to green. Interestingly, he finished a perfectly respectable 22nd there way back in 2002, when still very young and experienced. As well as Augusta in April, Casey was a big contender for three rounds in last year's US Open. If he can take the positives out of those efforts and keep himself together better the next time an opportunity arises, Casey could well become the first English Major winner since Nick Faldo.