US Open First Round Three-Ball Betting: Peak-form Harrington looks like timing his run to perfection

US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 11 June 2008 / 2 Comments

Paul Krishnamurty has the pick of the Torrey Pines three-ball betting ... and he may have even found a place for one Colin Montgomerie in his selections

In Thursday's three-balls, I like the look of three bets. First of all, Padraig Harrington looks a rock-solid favourite against defending champion Angel Cabrera and Davis Love at [2.3]. In my view the key to success this week will be good driving, with length important and accuracy essential. As far as identifying potential US Open contenders is concerned, the most interesting performer at Southwind over the weekend was Harrington, who ranked well clear ahead of the rest in 'total driving'.

Since his superb 2007 when he fulfilled two huge career aims in winning the Irish and British Opens, I've noticed a change in Harrington. Previously, this renowned workaholic often put in his best efforts in the run-up to majors only to disappoint when it really mattered. This year though, he seems entirely focused on the majors, correctly recognising that it is these performances on which he will be judged. Nobody looked in better nick over the weekend, and he looks to have found peak-form at just the right time.

Not that his opponents will be pushovers. Angel Cabrera is defending champ and a good US Open performer. But with all the extra media commitments that he will have had to endure in the run-up, 'The Duck' will do well to start off at his very best. In any case, his outright odds are four times that of Harrington, confirming that whatever respect he is due, Cabrera is clearly inferior to the Irishman. The final member of the three-ball, Davis Love, was a class act and regular US Open contender not so long ago. Nowadays though he looks firmly in decline and hasn't registered a top-20 all year, irrespective of a couple of decent rounds last week.

Another solid looking favourite is Ben Crane at [2.4], who takes on Johan Edfors and Eric Axley. For me, Axley is a big outsider here, having comfortably missed all three previous US Open cuts and only once finished better than 39th this year. Edfors is a potentially trickier opponent as he's a class act on his day, and has shown lots of good form on the European Tour this season.

However, the Swede is an ultra-attacking, very cavalier type of player. On a target golf course he can be lethal and is capable of shooting very low scores. I have grave doubts as to whether that approach will work in a US Open though, where the name of the game is relentlessly hitting fairways and greens, scrambling for pars and maintaining a patient outlook. Even if Edfors doesn't have a disaster, Crane will represent a very tough opponent. Fifth and sixth on his last two outings, Ben is a highly plausible outsider for the title whose accurate driving should prove quite an asset this week.

At [3.7], it may be worth taking a small risk on Colin Montgomerie against Rory Sabbatini and David Toms. Judging by the recent form of all three, this won't take much winning. Sabbatini hasn't made a top-20 since January and more importantly, hasn't made the top-50 in six US Opens. In my view, he just doesn't have the patience or resilience for this kind of gruelling golf. Toms hasn't made a top-10 either this year, and the biggest clue to his current wellbeing came at the weekend. On a course that he's made his own throughout his career, Southwind, 37th place was a very disappointing effort.

Its hard to make a case for Monty either on this year's form, apart from the fact he's outsider of three in a poor match. We can at least be certain that Monty is desperate to make an impression to boost his Ryder Cup chances, with this major one of the few opportunities he's going to get to take on the cream this summer. A top-25 finish would do him the world of good, and isn't entirely out of the question if he can build confidence early and make the weekend. This, after all, was always his favourite major, one that he really should have won having held very big chances on the final day on four separate occasions.

Selections:

16.50 - Ben Crane @ [2.4]
21.36 - Padraig Harrington @ [2.3]
22.09 - Colin Montgomerie @ [3.7]

Comments (2)

1. £10 Punter | 11 June 2008

   Every major we hear this Harrington 'peak' talk but I'm not convinced he's the fastest starter and he usually manages to scupper his chances early on. Nevertheless. I'll support him here as Angel is well off form and Love is a goner, isn't he?

2. Paul Krishnamurty | 11 June 2008

   Thanks for your comments.

   Yes I think Love's pretty much finished at this level. Even when he was at his best, I always felt he was a bit of a non-trier when the course was getting the better of him.