US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 17 June 2009 / Leave a comment

Camilo Villegas can eclipse Sergio Garcia and Adam Scott on day one, says Paul Krishnamurty, but who are his other three selections?

Ryuji Imada @ [3.0] (Vs Rory Sabbatini, Martin Kaymer)
Start Time: 12.33

Despite the fact that Bethpage Black is a very long course, I'm going for the shortest hitter of three in this early starting group. Ryuji Imada's record in this major so far suggests that, while he surely won't win the event, a high finish is a very realistic target for the Japanese player. Three of Imada's last four US Opens have produced top-20 finishes, a position also reached on his Masters debut in April. I suspect the reason behind those good results is Imada's high-class short game, and with the greens running at 14.0 on the stimp-meter, this brilliant putter should prosper again.

Perhaps more than any other player below 200/1, Sabbatini is the one I want to oppose this week. His US Open record is appalling, never making the top-50 in seven tries. The South African simply doesn't appear to have the game, nor the temperament, to cope with these conditions.

As for Kaymer, while he is fancied over the long-term to win majors, the German has yet to reproduce his world-class form in Europe to the PGA Tour. His long game is certainly good enough to thrive at Bethpage, but my concern is that his scrambling won't quite be up to scratch on a course where most holes will be a struggle for par.


Boo Weekley @ [2.4] (Vs Rod Pampling, Michael Campbell)
Start Time: 13.28

At his best, Michael Campbell is a match for anyone, as victories in this major and the World Matchplay during a golden spell in 2005 illustrate. At his worst, however, his golf is frankly below the standard one would expect of a professional. Right now, he looks gone at the game. He is yet to make a cut in 2009, and hasn't hit a competitive round lower than 72. With Bethpage Black sure to provide a testing examination of every aspect of the game, Campbell looks set for a miserable couple of days.

So it may not take much to win this three-ball, and of the other two players, Boo Weekley is preferred to Rod Pampling. Boo has generally performed well on major courses during his relatively short top-class career, and consecutive 26th placed finishes are no disgrace for his first two attempts at the US Open.

Pampling did make the top-15 last year, but has missed three out of five cuts in this major. His recent form is nothing out of the ordinary, with only three top-30s in his last nine starts. For me, that puts him slightly behind Weekley, and in what looks in effect a two-horse race, the American rates good value at [2.4].


Charl Schwartzel @ [2.3] (Vs Carl Pettersson, Azuma Yano)
Start Time: 17.52

This three-ball is another that doesn't look too competitive, and I suspect Schwartzel will need to do very little to win. In Pettersson he faces an opponent who can't do anything right at present. The Swede has made just one of his last 11 cuts, and only managed 64th on that occasion. At least he might draw some encouragement from a couple of excellent previous US Open performances, but it's doubtful that memories alone will cure his ills.

In all honesty, I know nothing about Japanese player Azuma Yano, apart from the fact that he looks badly out of his depth. The Japanese Tour is not particularly competitive; less so than Asia or Australasia in my view; so the fact that Yano's best finish in his last six events is 19th doesn't bode well.

Schwartzel represents by far the best of these three on 2009 form. He's made every cut, and only missed the top-25 twice. 27th in the Memorial last time out was a fair effort, leaving the impression that he can at least match respectable finishes of 48th and 30th in his two previous US Opens.


Camilo Villegas @ [2.6] (Vs Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia)
Start Time: 18.25

Not so long ago, all of these three would have been rated as contenders for this title, with Villegas comfortably the outsider. Things change very fast in golf though, and now the Colombian is the only one I can realistically see putting up a challenge. Scott is in the middle of an awful slump, missing seven of his last eight cuts and scoring 77/81 on his last outing a fortnight ago. Factor in a poor US Open record; never top-20, four missed cuts from seven; when in incomparably better form, and the Aussie looks set to miss another weekend.

Garcia hasn't plunged to those depths, but also hasn't enjoyed 2009 so far. He hasn't made a top-10 since January, and has slipped from [20.0] third favourite for this tournament a couple of months ago, to his current odds of [50.0]. A particular worry this week will be the speed of the greens, which could give this notoriously bad putter nightmares.

In contrast, Villegas looks a strong candidate. His last three US majors have produced finishes of 13th, fourth and ninth, confirming that he has the game for these championship courses. Recent form is good if not outstanding, making his last eight cuts, but a final round 66 on Sunday was exactly the type of warm-up required.