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US Open Betting: Tamers of Torrey Pines are few and far between

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There's plenty of course form to go on, so examining the best players' form on the long California course should pay dividends. Paul Krishnamurty has more on the savage US Open track...

Welcome to the beast that is Torrey Pines

If there's one stone-cold certainty in golf every year, it's that the USGA will ensure the US Open is a gruelling test, played on a penal course guaranteed to embarrass its share of big names. They don't like to see these courses humbled, and ever since Tiger Woods produced superhuman golf to tame Pebble Beach in 2000, the venues seem to have got harder. And I have a feeling we may see the toughest yet on June 12th.

The 2008 renewal sees the long-awaited US Open debut of the South Course at Torrey Pines. Its a course we know plenty about already as its been hosting the lion's share of the annual Buick Invitational for decades. Since being substantially re-designed in 2001 by Rees Jones, the longest course on the PGA Tour has already shown its teeth. From the Buick, an event which also includes one round on the low scoring friendly North Course, we can already tell that this long course will prove punishing for anyone struggling with their long game.

That event is staged in January though, in completely different weather conditions, and without the inevitable penal changes that always characterise this Major. Conditions will be very different in June, and considerably harder. For a start its being lengthened to a monstrous 7,643 yards, with the par cut by a shot to 71. The weather in June will obviously be much warmer, making the course dryer and the smallish greens faster. Usually if you miss a fairway in a US Open, there's little option of reaching the green in two, and I suspect that even from the fairways only the very best will be capable of controlling their long irons to hold these greens.

In short, this course is going to represent an unforgiving challenge to every area of a player's game. Anybody who struggles this week with either their driving accuracy, distance control or short game will have very little chance of even getting close to contention. Even on a course this long, distance alone will not be enough. Rather, as the results from the Buick suggest, although length is an advantage, course management is as important, enabling top-class short-hitters like Luke Donald to regularly get into the mix.

The general rule on the most punishing courses, is that the very best players tend to dominate. And so it has proved in the Buick Invitational. One man, who needs little introduction, owns that event. Tiger Woods has won five of the last six runnings, and never finished outside the top-ten. With the course playing tougher, I would expect his dominance in all the key departments to be even further exaggerated and at his best could imagine Woods winning this by a double-digit margin. In fact I was recommending Woods for the US Open back in January.

A glimmer of hope for the rest has since appeared in the form of Tiger undergoing knee surgery. Nobody is suggesting the injury is serious in the short-term, but it will have affected his practice schedule and he will arrive in San Diego with very little tournament golf since the Masters. Its for this reason that Woods can still be backed at [2.86], whereas without the knee injury, (not to mention a handful of short putts at Augusta), we may well have been looking at odds-on.

If he were to slip up, the principle about the best players dominating would still apply. I would make Phil Mickelson a resounding favourite against the rest here. Though he hasn't won one yet, Mickelson's US Open record is comparable to Tiger. We can overlook last year's missed cut when playing injured, as previously he'd been runner-up on four occasions.

Furthermore he knows Torrey Pines well, having played his high school golf there, though he does admit much of the local knowledge was lost after the course renovations. Irrespective of that, Phil's ability to control long irons and magical short-game are going to be huge assets around this layout. As long as he drives the ball well, I find it very hard to see him out of the top-five.

Looking through previous US Opens, the one that most closely matches my expectations of Torrey Pines came in 2002 at Bethpage Black. Bethpage was also a municipal course, characterised by a long and gruelling struggle where only the very best survived. The result? Tiger Woods led all the way to win by three shots, with Mickelson in clear second. No other player ever got into serious contention.