US Open Betting: Spell-binding Woods has destiny on his side, but Westwood can land first Major

US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 15 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty is sitting pretty after having backed Lee Westwood to win the US Open before the start and then again in-running. Here are his thoughts on who will go on and win it and his final selections from the 2-balls.

After another night of high drama that will live long in the memory, Tiger Woods stands on the verge of his fourteenth major title, and arguably his finest achievement yet. The manner in which he has compiled his leading -3 total left the firm impression that there is little the opposition can do about it, that victory is pre-destined.

By his own admission, the injury is getting worse as the tournament progresses, and if the game was measured purely on driving accuracy he'd have missed the cut. Yet Tiger's unique ability to produce magic seems to know no boundaries. If Friday's amazing back-nine was one of the greatest ever, last night's owed as much to some outrageous good fortune. Looking certain to trail by at least two shots going into Sunday, he holed two huge putts for eagles and somehow managed to chip directly into the hole for birdie on 17 with bogey beckoning. The result is a one-shot lead over Lee Westwood, and a mountain to climb for the rest.

We know that he doesn't lose majors, or indeed tournaments, when leading on Sunday, so from this angle his odds of [1.7] are perfectly fair. After the way his rounds have gone though, it would take a brave man to bet against Woods' odds drifting at some stage. And he must overcome a principal rival who is not only playing quite superbly, but also knows how to win.

The lack of a major title is the one glaring weakness in Westwood's CV. He's won 26 titles across various continents and has one of the all-time great Ryder Cup scoring records. For me, he's looked every inch a US Open champion all week, not least during last night's flawless round of 70. And unlike so many rivals, Westwood has beaten Tiger before in strokeplay, becoming the first player to overhaul a final-day Woods lead in Germany seven years ago.

Having already tipped Westwood in both this week's "Find Me a 100 Winner" http://betting.betfair.com/golf/players-under-the-microscope/find-me-a-100-winner-us-open-special-100608.html column and in-running at 32 http://betting.betfair.com/golf/golf-events/us-open/us-open-betting-update-take-on-struggling-woods-as-130608.html , I will be trading some of my 'green' back, but in all honesty I'm full of confidence. He's played the best golf of anyone this week, and there are very few other players I'd rather have carrying my final day cash in any tournament.

There are several others within striking distance, but they will have to produce something special. As is always the case in a US Open, scoring has got steadily harder and I find it hard to envisage any of the chasing pack bettering an even par 72-hole total. That would mean Woods needs to hit a three-over par 74 or better, (surely a given), or Westwood 73. Rocco Mediate is under-par but I expect this final round will be a step too far for the veteran.

Low scoring is possible for the remainder. The likes of Sergio Garcia, Ernie Els and Mike Weir all have the class and capability to overturn a six-shot deficit, but will still need some help from the leaders. A more plausible threat comes from Geoff Ogilvy, who sits four back in a tie for 4th place. Personally though, I doubt both the leaders will slip too badly and expect to see the title fought out between them. Obviously, there's no sense in me backing Westwood again, but at [5.3] he rates clearly the best value in my view.

As yesterday then, my betting plan tonight is to cheer on my two runners in the outright and plunder the 2-ball markets instead. To start, Dustin Johnson looks a value trade at [3.4] against Adam Scott. I'm always tempted by matches like this on the final day of a Major, where a rank outsider has everything to play for against an established star who could well be feeling demoralised. A top-20 finish for Johnson could make or break his season, and he will surely be fully motivated. Scott on the other hand, still recovering from a broken finger, has had another Major to forget.

Robert Dinwiddie's fine US debut began to go wrong on the back-nine last night, though he will still be delighted to start Sunday in the top-30. But just as yesterday's opponent Oliver Wilson was successfully supported because of his vastly superior overall form, Rod Pampling is simply too big a price at [1.86]. Pampling nearly won again on the PGA Tour a few weeks back, a scenario that can only be in Dinwiddie's wildest dreams. Sooner or later, erratic Dinwiddie is going to revert to type and throw in a bad round on this penal golf course, and I think tonight could just be a dream too far.

Similarly, Eric Axley has stepped up massively on the rest of his 2008 form and could be overdue a bad round today. Axley's unforeseen brilliance cost me dear in Thursday's 3-ball, but I'm going to try and get revenge today with Jeff Quinney at [1.85]. Again, Quinney's overall 2008 form is incomparable to his opponent, and there has been much to like about his pair of 70s to rescue his US Open after an opening 79.

2-BALL SELECTIONS

DUSTIN JOHNSON @ 3.4 (VS SCOTT) Starts 18:00
ROD PAMPLING @ 1.85 (VS DINWIDDIE) Starts 19:00
JEFF QUINNEY @ 1.85 (VS AXLEY) STARTS 19.20