US Open / Tareq Quiroz / 17 June 2009 /

Tiger should win, says Tareq Quiroz, but look for genuine quality for your back-up bets in case he doesn't.

There is nothing like a big sporting event to really get the heart beating and they don't come much bigger than the US Open. As much as I love the Masters, I never really feel the season has taken shape until after this major. The gloves are off and the best will battle it out over a brutal test of golf. Even the build-up to this event is fantastic as we all try and get an idea of how this year's course is going to play.

The Course
This year's track is the much talked about Bethpage Black. We last saw it back in 2002 when Tiger secured his second US Open. That year Tiger was the only player in the field to finish under par with a superb three under score. There is no good reason to suspect that Bethpage won't play extremely tough again this year. The remit for the officials is to make this week the hardest test all year long and so it shall be.
At over 7,400 yards it is now over 200 longer than it was in 2002 and it doesn't take a genius to work out that the extra length will not help the course play any easier. The length of the course is particularly disconcerting when you take into account this is just a par 70 track. The key to playing this is the same as any US Open - keep the ball in the fairway. It is important to note however that Bethpage is set up with graduated rough so that anyone just missing the fairway isn't instantly penalized. For those of you playing in-running bear in mind that only two holes played under par last time. I don't expect any holes to do that this year and keep an eye out for the particularly brutal 15th and 16th holes.

The Favourite
If Tiger is in the field then he is the automatic market leader. He has 14 major titles to his name and it is a very rare occurrence for him to go a season without adding to that total. With the kind of form he showed at the Memorial in mind you have to assume that 2009 will be a golden year for him. He has been heavily supported since his recent victory and is now trading at a steady [3.0]. And at that price I am most certainly a backer. If Tiger reproduces the form he showed at the Memorial then he will win this by 10 shots. But even if he is just plays somewhere near that he will win comfortably so he has to be the selection. The odds available won't make you rich and personally I will be looking for other alternatives but you can't get away from the fact he is by far the most likely winner.

The Next Best Bets
There are so many options this week. I am hopeful that Paul Casey will go well and I have a feeling that Camilo Villegas will hit top form this week. Certainly the [70.0] available about Villegas means he should be in your staking plan. However, my main selection this week is Ernie Els. Many will say that he is a fading light in the world of elite golf but I disagree. Els' game is just too natural for it to completely disappear and there have been plenty of signs recently that he is nearing some good form. If he can get in contention early then I have no doubts that he can see the job off. He is a two time US Open winner and at current odds of [65.0] he is the top bet this week.

The Massive Outsider
This market is just brimming with opportunities for big priced fancies. I can't let a major preview go without mentioning my ever present selection Lee Westwood. I am absolutely positive this guy will win a major and maybe even this week. He really is in no form coming here but maybe for once, with the pressure off, he might sneak under the radar. He certainly has the game as proved with his third pace last year. At crazy odds of [160.0] it is impossible for me to leave him out of my staking plan.
If we are talking real shocks, real outsiders then I draw your attention to Tom Lehman. He has just turned 50 and has played a couple of events on the Champions Tour. Don't let that put you off as he came through qualifying to get here and is swinging the club great at the moment. He is currently trading at monumental odds of [960.0]. He has to be worth a small punt at those odds and may be worth a peak in the Top Five finish market too.

Interesting Info
Week in week out on the PGA Tour it is the Australians who are most heavily represented after the US, but this week that honour goes to the English. An amazing 11 English players will tee it up this week at Bethpage in what is an encouraging sign for English golf.
Curtis Strange was the last person to defend this title and that was way back 1989. Tiger will be hoping to break that run this year and he will also be aiming to join the elite group of players who have won four US Opens. Jack Nicklaus was the last person to achieve that feat back in 1980.

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