US Open Betting: Poulter and Mickelson should provide good trades

US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 20 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty talks us through the main stories from day one at Bethpage Black where the coure itself isn't playing too hard but the conditions are causing havoc. It would be silly to ever dismiss Tiger Woods' chances but the likes of Mickelson and Poulter provide much better value....

Whoever emerges as champion on Sunday, or Monday, will certainly have earned it. Bethpage Black has a reputation as the most gruelling walk in golf; not a place where playing 72 holes in three days is ideal. In particular, one can sympathise with those who played 20 odd holes until close of play yesterday, and must return first thing in the morning to complete their second rounds.

Then again perhaps sympathy isn't in order, because these players certainly got the best of conditions yesterday. On Sky, Butch Harmon estimated that those drawn with an afternoon tee-time for the first round played a course that was on average four shots easier than for the other half of the field who started on Thursday. Any inconvenience caused by their gruelling overnight schedule might at least level things up in this respect.

Tiger Woods certainly got the worst of it, even if he was very sporting in his interview. The truth is he just didn't play well anyway, and while I'd never be so stupid as to write Tiger off, odds of [7.6] to win the title make no appeal whatsoever. Currently in a tie for 68th place, ten shots off the lead, Woods will need to do an awful lot to be trading at a shorter price after his second round.

Besides former Masters champion Mike Weir, its not so much that Woods should fear many of the names currently challenging for the lead. Rather the concern is that there are so many players between him and the lead. My guess is that, in order to remain in contention, Woods will have to shoot at least -2, which is no straightforward feat at Bethpage, even if the course is playing easier than expected.

Nevertheless, good scores are still possible in conditions that scarcely resemble past US Opens. Due to its extreme length, Bethpage has still played difficult with only 16 players under par right now; a figure that will certainly decrease over the weekend. It has been strange, though, to see these receptive greens enabling players to attack the holes with spin.

Assuming those greens don't dry out too much (and forecast showers should ensure that tomorrow), it seems inevitable that over four rounds the longer hitters will enjoy an advantage. With little run on the fairways, their greater distance through the air enables a much shorter club with which to attack the pins. It also should favour the better players and exclude any shock results. Bethpage played long and soft the last time it held a US Open in 2002, producing a very predictable leaderboard of Woods followed by Mickelson, with Garcia in 4th and the field well strung out behind.

So if Woods represents poor value, then who are these class acts set to fight it out over the weekend, who are worth a trade now? We're looking for a top-class player, with plenty of power, plus reserves of both mental and physical stamina for a gruelling weekend. Amongst those currently under par, the only three that really qualify under those criteria are Weir, Phil Mickelson and Sean O'Hair. Adam Scott can't be completely ruled out if you're prepared to forgive some appalling recent form. One shot further back, Anthony Kim could fit the bill.

All of those have a great opportunity to position themselves for the weekend when they re-start early in the morning. At [9.2], Mickelson looks the best bet amongst them. He loves this tournament, is ideally suited by the course and has the crowd cheering every shot in hope of an emotional victory. If today's play is anything to go by, then Mickelson's renowned ability to bounce back immediately from disaster will be a valuable asset. From this promising early position, I fully expect him to be in thick of it all weekend, and to trade lower than [9.2].

Unless one of those out early does something amazing, some of the later starters should shorten up before even hitting a ball. In particular, Ian Poulter stands out as a cracking trade at [36.0]. I've already laid out an argument pre-tournament at [100.0]

http://betting.betfair.com/golf/golf-events/us-open/find-me-a-100-winner-us-open-special-1-160609.html, and there's no reason to change tack now. Considering he got the worst of the draw, Poulter's opening 70 was a superb effort, and he certainly has the resilience to survive this long weekend.