US Open Betting Portfolio: Young-guns aim to follow Immelman's lead

US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 03 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty surveys the US Open chances of an emerging batch of under-30s...

Despite all the talk about the emerging group of twenty-somethings waiting to gatecrash the elite, few could have picked Trevor Immelman to be the first to be break through in a major. Not that Trevor wasn't widely recognised as a tremendous prospect, but his Augusta odds of [350.0] reflected a long struggle with injuries, illness and form and he has been equally poor since that career-changing weekend.

Nevertheless, Immelman's victory must have acted as a massive spur for his talented peers. Nine of this season's PGA Tour winners have been under 30. With established stars Els, Singh and Goosen seemingly on the wane, there's a clear opportunity for one of several 'prospects' to make the necessary improvement to become one of the elite.

They'll have their work cut out at brutal Torrey Pines though. Because of the US Open's usual emphasis on course management, scrambling and resilience, this has never been an easy major for the less experienced player. Twenty-something US Open winners have generally been few and far between, though it has proved possible in recent times. 2006 winner Geoff Ogilvy was 29, whilst Tiger Woods and Ernie Els won all four of their US Opens whilst in this age range.

The quality of those rare winners suggest only a handful of the very best in that younger age-range can come in for serious consideration. World rankings clearly show the best two currently are Sergio Garcia and Adam Scott, a position reflected in their odds around [36.0]. At those odds, both must be considered obvious contenders, and I've discussed their US Open credentials elsewhere.

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On the basis of his 2007 form, [50.0] chance Justin Rose would rate at least their equal. Winning the Order of Merit from just a dozen starts was a remarkable achievement, which owed much to a very consistent year in the Majors. He's already defied the low expectations of young players in Majors, memorably finishing fourth in the Open as a 17 year-old. Interestingly, Rose also finished fifth in the US Open when just 22 and went well for a long way at Oakmont last year.

Unfortunately, he hasn't yet recaptured that form yet this year, and was very disappointing at Augusta having led after the first day. Even when playing better at Muirfield Village last weekend, there were visible flaws in his long game that could get found out on the toughest of courses.

I've been talking up big things for Aaron Baddeley since seeing him win the Australian Open twice as a teenager. If he doesn't win the US Open this year, I'm confident he will one day. The Aussie Open may be several rungs below its equivalent, but it is always played on a gruelling, tough golf course with dry, fast greens and attracts a decent field. Baddeley's chief victims for the first of those titles, whilst an amateur, were Greg Norman and Colin Montgomerie.

Six times a worldwide winner including twice in the States, Baddeley continues to impress with a nerveless temperament under pressure. Few will be more confident standing over those tricky five-footers so frequently faced in a US Open. He was bang in contention for three rounds at Oakmont before slipping back to 13th on the final day, and I expect further improvement this year.

Another player I'm confident will win this event at some stage in the future is Antony Kim. 22-year old Kim has made a huge impression in a short space of time in the States, culminating in a runaway first victory at the prestigious Wachovia Championship. He also earned many plaudits at last year's US Open by making the top-20 on his first try, and would appear to have the long-game credentials for a course like Torrey Pines provided inexperience doesn't find him out.

His odds of [65.0] don't look anything special when considering the scale of achievement required at this stage of his career, but his potential is such that I wouldn't lay. In fact, seeing as he played so well at the equally brutal Oakmont, Kim is very much on my shortlist for speciality bets such as the top-10 market.