US Open Betting Portfolio: Woods still "Bet of the Year"

US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 02 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

Tournament ready Woods can triumph at Torrey Pines, says Paul Krishnamurty

As is so often the case in life, fate has intervened to mess up the best laid punting plans. When I advised a bet on Tiger Woods to win the US Open back in January http://betting.betfair.com/golf/golf-events/buick-invitational-betting-us-open-runthrough-offe-220108.html, I was convinced that this was not only the bet of the year, but the risk-free trade of the year. In short, the argument went that he would arrive at arguably his favourite course, Torrey Pines, in the same invincible form shown in the second half of last year and the first few months of this one. Especially if he'd already won the first-leg of a much-hyped Grand Slam at Augusta, Woods would start as the first odds-on favourite in majors history.

Yet without anything going seriously wrong on the golf course, the bet is in danger. OK, Woods didn't win the Masters but considering he was well below his best and missed a string of crucial short putts down the back-nine, second place actually confirmed just how far clear of the rest he is. I'm still adamant that Tiger playing to 75% of his best will win comfortably at Torrey Pines.

However, a large element of doubt crept into this projection the moment Tiger announced, after the Masters, that he was to undergo knee surgery. Nothing too serious, we're told, but doubts increased when he cancelled his expected comeback in last week's Memorial Tournament, citing the knee as 'not tournament ready'. So we're left guessing as to the wellbeing of the knee, and how much it has affected his practice schedule. One thing we can be sure of is that Tiger isn't going to feed the media a talking point if he is struggling to get fit. Team Woods will, as always, exude total confidence in public.

By the time he tees off, it will be two months since Tiger's last competitive action. If it wasn't for the injury, there would be no cause for concern. Woods has lightened his schedule in recent years, and breaks of this length have become the norm. In the last two seasons, he has opted out of lucrative US events such as the Tour Championship and Mercedes Championship, only breaking his autumn schedule for the odd overseas appearance and his own charity-orientated Target Challenge.

Those breaks haven't affected his golf. Last season, the Target Challenge was his only appearance in four-months, yet he still managed to register resounding wins in that event and those that preceded and followed it. A particularly useful coincidence is that he has arrived at Torrey Pines for his opening event of each of the last three years coming off a lengthy break. On each occasion, the break has proved no handicap, and he's walked away with the Buick Invitational title.

But because this absence is enforced rather than voluntary, people will draw parallels with 2006 when Woods didn't play between the Masters and US Open, because his father was dying. He made his return at Winged Foot, and promptly missed the cut, (before resuming total dominance a few weeks later).

That was the only time since he turned professional that Tiger arrived at a Major unprepared, and I'm sure that he will have done everything in his power to be ready for Torrey Pines. However, the narrative this has created could well feed into the market. Back in March, Woods had already traded down to [2.0] for this. Now with his odds out to {3.1}, I have a dilemma to face. Do I hold on to my position, or lay back for a smaller 'free bet' than anticipated?

I remember the market trends at Augusta. For that major, few voices were predicting anything but a Woods walkover, yet those brave layers forced his odds out considerably before the tournament started. They correctly reasoned that laying someone below {2.5} pre-tournament is the perfect way to start building an in-running book and that he was bound to trade higher. With the injury certain to be a big story in the run-up, I can see the same thing happening again. Nevertheless, I don't think I could live with myself if I bailed out of a trade I'd already labelled the 'bet of the year', so I shall ride it out and hope that Tiger has spent the last few weeks preparing meticulously rather than with his feet up.