US Open Betting Portfolio: Aussie stable have best chances at Torrey Pines

US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 02 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty looks at the challenge from the golfers from Australia, South Africa and Asia at this year's US Open

If ever you wanted an illustration of golf's transformation into a truly global game, there is no better example than the roll-call of US Open winners. This major used to be a strictly domestic affair, producing only three non-American winners between 1926 and 1993. Even then, home dominance was only pierced by a pair of South Africans, Ernie Els and Retief Goosen, who racked up four wins over the following decade.

More recently though, in line with a clear shift in power on the regular tours, this has become a truly global affair. The last four years have seen four different winning nationalities, though none were either American or European. Since 2005, we've seen the first winner from New Zealand and Argentina and only the second from Australia. And of the top-20 in this year's betting, nine come from the group rather disparagingly referred to as the 'Rest of the World'.

There's been three standout players in this group over recent times, though all are showing signs of decline. Els and Goosen are still young enough to recover, but have looked a shadow of their former selves over the last year. Likewise Vijay Singh, a model of consistency over the past decade, is fighting hard to defy the ageing process but isn't getting any better. In any case, despite making the top-10 seven times in this major, Vijay has never really looked like winning it. All three of these superstars are at least [34.0] in the betting, higher than for any US Open in living memory, yet still make little appeal.

Only Curtis Strange has retained this title since the 1950s, so I doubt there will be too many takers of the [80.0] about Angel Cabrera upsetting the odds once again. Since becoming the first Argentinian winner 12 months ago, another of his countrymen has emerged on the world scene. Andres Romero has won on both sides of the Atlantic already and went very close in last year's British Open. However, Romero has an ultra-attacking game, the type that tends to get found out in this gruelling major, and I can't see him having the temperament or the experience for a US Open yet.

With Els and Goosen struggling, the South African team looks weaker than usual. Rory Sabbatini has yet to make a top-50 in this major, and if Trevor Immelman wins consecutive majors, we might as well give up gambling. In fact, the only representative from that country that figures on my short-list is [110.0] chance Tim Clark. Clark's relentless accuracy is always a crucial asset on these penal courses, enabling him to finish third at Pinehurst and register two other top-20s in the last four years.

Without doubt the strongest individual country outside US and Europe is Australia, who now have dozens of players on both the main tours. Shortest in the betting is Adam Scott, on the basis of his world ranking and stellar form in ordinary tour events. His record in the majors is dire though, in particular this one where he's yet to make the top-20 in six tries.

My selection for 'Top Australian', and indeed 'Top Rest of the World' is 2006 champion Geoff Ogilvy. That breakthrough at Winged Foot was seen as quite a surprise at the time, but he's shown several times since that there was no fluke about it. Ogilvy seems very much the man for the big occasion, twice winning World Golf Championships, finishing runner-up in another and regularly making the top-10 in majors. He arrives at Torrey Pines in excellent form, and rates a good value bet around [50.0] to win his second US Open.

Several of his countrymen could also be a factor. Aaron Baddeley has come on leaps and bounds in the past couple of seasons, and was a strong contender for a long way at Oakmont last year. He looks very interesting at [80.0], while rank outsiders Nick O'Hern and Rod Pampling are the kind of steady characters who often compete well in this major. The one Aussie I won't be looking at here though is Stuart Appleby, whose attacking game has never managed to get the best out of a US Open venue.

If we're looking for a new country to win its first US Open, (excluding most European nations), then the two most obvious candidates are South Korea and Canada. The former is represented by KJ Choi, a regular contender at the highest level nowadays, though he is another yet to get the hang of this brutal major. Canada though has a couple of very interesting outsiders in Mike Weir and Stephen Ames, with Weir particularly taking the eye. A former Masters champion, the left-hander has made the top-6 in three of the last five US Opens, a record that belies his odds of [130.0].