US Open / Steven Rawlings / 14 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

"The Punter" updates us on his US Open betting

The early play on Thursday suggested that the set up wasn't quite as brutal as I'd expected with plenty of players under par but things slowly changed and the scores began to creep back up as the mornings play unfolded.

By six o'clock UK time it looked all over for my main pick Mickelson. After starting with four pars he played his approach shot to the fifth green to within about 15 feet of the hole but the ball slowly, deliberately and cruelly rolled away and down a tier to leave him with a lengthy 45 feet for birdie. In true Lefty fashion the birdie putt was too bold and the par putt back was also missed. It seemed to upset his rhythm and he also bogeyed the next two holes. While all this was going on for some bizarre reason I topped up my bet on him @ [25.0], he actually drifted right out to [36.0] before finally righting the ship. A birdie at the 10th was the catalyst for a superb back nine and when he finished his round back on level par he was trading back down to around [8.8].

Mickelson, when interviewed after his round, suggested that the pin positions had been about as favourable as they could have been and perhaps that explained the unusual glut of early birdies, but as the afternoon wore on his round of level par was looking better and better.

As for Tiger, a double bogey start had the layers crowing but we all know what Tiger is like, by the time he reached the 10th tee he was under par and when he pounded his drive down the middle of the fairway on the par 5 13th hole, I backed him again @ [3.25]. But he made a mess of things from there and needed a lengthy par save.

He followed that with a double bogey at the very next hole and I was kicking myself for diving in. But it wasn't such an awful move when you consider he only pared in after that and yet was no bigger than [4.5] by the time he teed off yesterday.

The biggest worry for Woods backers was the grimace of pain he showed on the 18th tee. It was going to be a long and painful tournament for him.

My only other best was a few bob squandered on Ben Crane @ [100.0] when he started well. Unfortunately he finished very poorly and I wont see that cash again.

As for the first round leader market, I was mortified I hadn't got involved as I was obviously tossing up between Justin Hicks and Kevin Streelman! They finished the day tied for the lead on -3.

By the time the big two teed off yesterday nobody had taken the event by the scruff and they were still the market leaders. Woods started poorly with bogeys at his 1st and 3rd holes, while Lefty showed real tenacity making lengthy par saves on his 2nd and 3rd holes. Woods then cancelled out his two bogeys with an eagle on the par 13th, his 4th hole and I topped up on him @ [5.7]. He and Lefty both struggled to the turn though and when they teed off on the 1st hole with nine to play they were both two over for the day.

The first hole, the group's 10th, was a real turning point. Woods had driven his tee shot wildly right of the fairway, on the edge of the cart path and only just clear of a tree. He played a fantastic shot into the heart of the green but again grimaced in agony, his right leg having slipped and his injured knee having taken all the strain on the cart path. Frantic trading saw the great man over [7.0] again; it was obvious that he was in a lot of pain. Could this signal the end?

Not a bit of it, we saw yet another new dimension to Woods. The silky smooth magician also has the heart of a lion, a great big brave lion at that! The gladiatorial strength shown was magnificent.

Compare Woods' determination to the weak willed yellow livered, frankly pathetic looking withdrawal of Poulter, who hours early had cried enough claiming he'd injured his wrist following a three putt from about eight feet and you see why the gulf is so wide.

Woods drained the birdie putt and went on to birdie three of the next four holes as well; all of a sudden he was in the driving seat.

While all this was going on, Mickelson's wayward driving was really starting to tell. Much to the TV commentator's amazement Lefty had left his driver out of the bag for the first two rounds. Their point being that if you're going to miss the fairway you may as well miss it nearer the green. But I don't really concur, he's clearly suffering with his driving and he's decided to give himself the best possible chance to find the fairways. The truth is he isn't because his driving is so poor and it looks highly likely its going to cost him. We can't really know for sure but my guess is that had he been using the driver, he may even be worse off than he is now.

Mickelson's turning points came on the 3rd hole, his 12th and on the 8th, his 17th. On the 3rd he made the most remarkable par, having hit his tee shot on the par three over the back of the green and down into the scrubland hazard well below the green, he chipped up to within around thirty feet and made the putt. Fist pumps and hollows followed but rather than spur him on it seem to knock him off his already ungainly stride. Then he missed a great birdie chance on the 8th to get back to +2 and followed that with a disastrous final hole bogey to leave him seven shots adrift of the lead, held by Appleby on -3. He's closely followed by Woods, Karlsson and Mediate on -2

As he traipsed off the 9th green, he looked a dejected, sad and beaten man and its going to take a Herculean effort for him to figure again this year. All the stats are against him, playing catch up at the US open is almost impossible. But this is likely to be the only time in his career that the event will be staged at his home course and he's a fighter. He may well have the driver back in his bag later and he might just do something magical. I hope so anyway, blind faith has seen me have a little bit more on him @ [50.0].

As for my bets, well I'm not having any further involvement at this stage, I've build up a nice bank of bets on Woods and though I'm obviously still concerned, I'm not worried enough to start laying back yet.

Anyway back to bed now for a few hours, these late nights are quite demanding.

I'll recap the weekend's play on Monday.

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