US Open Betting: Look to lay shock front-runners as pressure takes its toll

US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 22 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

Over £1000 has been matched on Ricky Barnes at the maximum odds of [1000.00], and over £500 at [400.00] on Lucas Glover. Anyone who has taken those odds deserves the heartiest of congratulations, because quite frankly this must be the unlikeliest final pairing in majors history, writes Paul Krishnamurty...

I hope that any Ricky Barnes backers took some profit when he shortened to [2.2], because this rank outsider is beginning to look out of his depth. This is a player who has never won a professional event, and has a best 2009 finish of 47th. When he resumes this afternoon, Barnes is facing a nightmare position in the rough on the second hole, and will do well just to save bogey. That will be five shots gone in his last 14 holes, and its easy to envisage Ricky slipping out of contention as his luck runs out on this tough course.

Lucas Glover, on the other hand, has yet to show any signs of the pressure, and is going to take plenty of beating. At -7, he is five shots clear of third-placed trio Phil Mickelson, Ross Fisher and Hunter Mahan. With scoring getting higher as the week has gone on, its unlikely any of the chasers can get beyond -5, so Glover may only need to go round in par or one over to win.

Can he do it? In fairness, while he was a rank outsider before the event, Glover is in another league to Barnes. He's twice made the top-3 in prestigious events this season. However, while he has coped well so far, Glover has never been in anything like this position before, and is barely a proven winner. His only PGA Tour title came in a resort course, target golf affair in 2005, and if memory serves, Glover only won after a lucky chip in from a poor position. Now he effectively has the lead on his own, the pressure will intensify, and five shots can disappear very quickly around a US Open course.

Nevertheless, somebody will have to emerge from the pack to pressurise Glover. Pretty much everyone in New York and way beyond, not to mention myself and fellow columnist 'The Punter' , are hoping that man will be Mickelson. Since he holed that long birdie putt on the final hole of his third round, I've become further convinced that Lefty is this year's champion. When he restarts in the morning, there are a couple of early birdie chances, and if he takes them, the leaders will know about it from the deafening roar.

From purely an odds perspective though, I couldn't recommend a bet on Mickelson now at [6.6]. That more than adequately reflects the scale of the task, and its not as if he's the only challenger to the front two. Basically, if the leaders fall back, any one of about 10 players could yet win with a late rattle of birdies. From seven back, Tiger Woods will give himself a chance, though again [20.00] could hardly be described as value.

For me, the best betting strategy from now is to look towards laying Glover and Barnes. At [2.7] and [6.2] respectively, their odds combine to [1.87], and I suspect both might shorten up further in the immediate term. Also, the one chaser I like from a trading perspective is Retief Goosen at [44.0]. The twice former US Open champion is alongside Tiger seven behind, but that's only two shots off third place. Goosen has always been suited by these type of soft, wet conditions and his last two rounds have been exemplary.