US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 11 June 2009 / Leave a comment

Golf betting guru Paul Krishnamurty focuses on Tiger Woods, who showed such outrageous form last weekend that he trades at just [3.0] to win at Bethpage Black. But at that price, can you take a risk on any golfer against a field as good as this?

Until just a few days ago, the US Open looked the most wide open for several years. Outside of the 'Big Two', very little separates at least the next 30 players, and with serious doubts concerning the chances of those two principals, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, offered plenty of hope to the rest.

That narrative changed somewhat on the final day of the Memorial Tournament, where a scintillating finish from Tiger must have sent waves of fear throughout the rest of the opposition. Starting Sunday four shots off the pace, Woods hit a flawless 65 to hunt down a top-class leaderboard that contained two of his biggest US Open rivals, Jim Furyk and Geoff Ogilvy.

For the first time since returning from injury, Tiger's much vaunted 'A Game' was on display at Muirfield Village. He had won previously this year; on one of his favourite courses, Bay Hill; but most of Woods' recent performances had been littered with inaccurate driving and some uncharacteristically sloppy mistakes around the greens. At the Memorial, Woods ranked second for driving accuracy and third for greens in regulation; a pair of stats that must terrify his rivals, who know that when Tiger's long game is reliable, he's virtually unbeatable.

Furthermore, anyone who saw the US Open when it was last held at Bethpage Black will remember just how much 'The Beast' played to his strengths. In 2002, Woods was trading at odds-on after just a few holes and never surrendered the lead, eventually winning by three shots from Mickelson. No wonder that punters reacted to his Memorial heroics by smashing his US Open price in from [3.8] to just [3.0].

However, therein lies the conundrum facing punters. We all know he's the man to beat, and many of us fully expect him to deliver, but every bet has its price. And anyone that follows the fluctuations of his price in-running will know that it is a long time since Tiger didn't trade significantly higher than [3.0] at some point during an event. Even when winning at the Memorial, Woods hit a high of [15.0] on the third day, which was only slightly more than the highest price matched for his win at Bay Hill.

Nor does [3.0] accurately reflect Tiger's chance based on his event history. He's won three times from 12 attempts since turning professional; an awesome record by anyone's standards, but in crude statistical terms a [4.0] chance. Interestingly, he's missed the top-10 in half of them too, which even despite those three titles makes the US Open his weakest major.

In my view, the key is how Bethpage Black plays. In 2002, it could have not have been more perfect for Woods, as persistent rain softened the course. At its absolute longest, Bethpage is just too tough for the overwhelming majority of players. Rather than the usual US Open combination of having to hit fairways and hold super-fast greens, it was quite a task just to reach some of the greens in 2002. Those that could reach had less trouble than usual holding them. Moreover, on the occasions where Woods did miss the fairway, he was one of only a handful with enough strength to manufacture a shot out of that penal rough.

Tiger's strength out of the long stuff will again be a significant advantage, but overall, I doubt the course will play anywhere as favourably. A common misconception is that long courses automatically favour the long hitters. If conditions are dry next week, driving accuracy will be of equal importance. And remember that everyone said the same thing about the gruelling course that hosted last year's US Open, Torrey Pines. Then, Tiger's power game did eventually prevail but only after a marathon play-off with short-hitting veteran Rocco Mediate.

Nevertheless, while these are arguments to puncture any assumptions that Woods will run away with this, only the criminally insane would deny that he starts as overwhelming favourite. That win last year was, for me, the finest moment of his career; winning a major when barely able to walk. His second finest moment also came in this major, when winning the 2000 US Open by an amazing 15 shots. If as suggested at the Memorial, Tiger is approaching that kind of perfect form, the rest may be playing for a distant second place again.