US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 24 May 2009 /

Paul Krishnamurty considers the stats worth noting as the US Open returns to Bethpage Black for 2009's second major.

It is one of golf's great certainties that the US Open will be played on an extremely tough course, so a few eyebrows were raised when Bethpage Black was nominated as the venue in 2002. As the first genuinely public golf course ever to host a major, Bethpage was greeted as a democratic advance but several pundits doubted it would provide the necessary challenge for this famous championship.

They needn't have worried. Whereas some US Open venues - Shinnecock Hills for instance - were widely criticised for being unfair, Bethpage earned rave reviews across the board. After one of most gruelling tournaments in living memory, the popular Long Island course had been nicknamed 'the beast', with only Tiger Woods finishing under par.

As with any US Open layout, the fairways are narrow and the rough penal, but Bethpage's real trump card is its length at 7,460 yards. Apparently, a round there is one of the very hardest walks in golf, so it's probably a safe bet to write off anyone who isn't very fit.

In 2002, very wet conditions turned it to even more of a slog, and as the course has been lengthened by 200 yards since, its hard to imagine scoring being any easier. In fact, if the greens become dried out it could be even higher.

Certainly, the leaderboard in 2002 suggests this is a track where the cream will rise to the top. Phil Mickelson finished three shots behind Tiger as runner-up, with only US Open specialist Jeff Maggert and Sergio Garcia also within seven of the winner. Take out Maggert and we're talking about the top-3 ranked players in the world before this weekend's action at the BMW PGA and Byron Nelson Championships. It's safe to assume that Woods ([3.95]) and Garcia ([38.0]) (though not Mickelson due to wife Amy's recent cancer diagnosis) will come in for sustained market support once punters begin studying the formbook in the run-up to the June 18 showpiece.

Because of Bethpage's extreme length, some might assume that only a big-hitter can win. However we heard exactly the same narrative last year before that other well-known beast, Torrey Pines South Course, hosted the year's second major, but it didn't prove quite that simple. As Tiger eventually won, the tournament did indeed go to a very big-hitter, but the fact he had to beat short and steady veteran Rocco Mediate in a play-off somewhat weakens the theory.

Furthermore, the 2002 result may have been exacerbated by the wet conditions. When there is no run on soft fairways, driving distance through the air takes on greater significance and the receptive greens enabled more attacking approach play. If it's dry this year, my view is that driving accuracy will be of equal importance to brute strength. Because there are so many long par-4s, (the 7th hole will be 525 yards this year), most players will have no option but to take driver off the tee. And because the rough is so penal, those that fail to hit the narrow fairways will then have little option to chip out sideways and try to limit the damage.

In short then, we're looking for someone who is physically fit, who drives the ball fairly long and very straight. Perhaps therefore, the statistic that offers the best clue is 'Total Driving', which ranks players across both driving distance and accuracy. Over the past six months on the PGA Tour, the top-three in that category are the player who finished third last year, Lee Westwood ([50.0]), Jonathan Byrd, and the man who slaughtered the strongest field of the year at the recent Players Championship, Henrik Stenson ([42.0]).

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