US Open / Steven Rawlings / 19 June 2011 /

He's playing superbly and only a Greg Norman-like major collapse can stop relentless Rory now...

Having looked forward to the US Open for months, plotting wagers and planning in-running strategies, it's hard not to feel flat about Rory McIlroy's precession job at Congressional.

How often do you back someone on day one of a major at odds of [80.0], only to witness them spending most of the week in 2nd place, yet pretty much know the bet's doomed! Y E Yang's late rally last night has kept that particular wager alive but only just. After another sublime performance, McIlroy now leads by fully eight shots and anyone that's backed anyone other than him is hoping for a Greg Norman-like major collapse.

The USGA had set the course up with accessible pins yesterday, giving the chasers a bit of a chance to make inroads on Rory but all the really good scores came from those slightly too far back and unless McIlroy has a truly atrocious final round he'll be crowned champ.

The turning point last night, if indeed there really was one, came on the toughest hole on the course - the par-4 11th. McIlroy had just bogeyed the tricky 10th and his drive had found the rough. Back-to-back bogeys may have allowed doubts to creep in but he played a majestic seven-iron to within 20 odd feet and drained the putt for birdie. I called it a night at that point.

Every cloud has a silver lining though and I can cheer myself up with the fact that I didn't play the markets anymore after day one and more importantly, I hadn't taken on McIlroy until this morning. It's very hard to make a case for anything other than an easy win for McIlroy now, he can afford a little wobble or three and still get home, and he appears far enough clear to relax but at [1.13] there isn't much downside, so I've layed him modestly. It's just about possible to put up a miniscule argument for doing so though but in truth, I really can't see him losing.

He leads by twice the margin he did at Augusta a few months ago but he ended that day trailing Charl Schwartzel by ten - a collapse that size would again be met by defeat. There are also examples of other major collapses. The aforementioned Greg Norman case, Jean Van de Velde's Carnoustie cave in - 1999, when he gave up a five-shot lead, and there were a couple of memorable ones last year too...

Dustin Johnson shot 80 in this event and at the US PGA Championship; Nick Watney did even worse and shot 81. Both men took substantial leads into day four and folded very tamely.

Rory's playing superbly and most importantly, putting superbly. For the man's sanity's sake, I hope he gets the job done now but if he was to have an absolute and utter mare and I hadn't layed him this short I'd be cross with myself.

I'll be back tomorrow with my Tournament De-Brief.

The Punter's Pre-event US Open picks

Phil Mickelson @ [18.0]
KJ Choi @ [36.0]
Bubba Watson @ [55.0]
Ernie Els @ [110.0]
Jonathan Byrd @ [160.0]
Mark Wilson @ [180.0]
Peter Hanson @ [190.0]
Ben Crane @ [240.0]
Davis Love III @ [350.0]
Chad Campbell @ [410.0]

In-running plays

Louis Oosthuizen @ [38.0] - Day one
Y E Yang @ [80.0] - Day one
Zach Johnson @ [100.0] - Day one

A lay of Rory McIlroy @ [1.13] - After day three

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