US Open / Steven Rawlings / 11 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

Each week our very own golf bettor - Steven Rawlings aka 'The Punter' - backs and lays the big events from the European and PGA Tours. Well this week it's a real biggie, The US Open, and you can keep up with his progress on betting.betfair throughout the weekend

All roads lead to the south course at Torrey Pines, San Diego this week for the toughest golfing test of the year bar none. And there's no getting away from the big question.

Will Tiger Woods be mentally and physically fit enough to challenge? Reports and rumours have ranged from him still limping to him being 100% right. The truth is nobody except Woods knows and maybe he won't know for sure until he has to dig one out of the five inch rough.

Torrey Pines is also the venue for the Buick Invitational, an event Tiger has won the last four renewals of. He has six victories here in total and a fully fit and in-form Tiger would be a very warm order here this week.

Personally I think the cons outweigh the pros with Tiger but it would be folly to dismiss him completely and his price has drifted enough to become ever so slightly attractive so I've backed him @ [4.6] to cover my stakes and to show a small profit.

The course will surely be vastly different to that used at the Buick in a cool damp January. The players will encounter almost vicious conditions this week, the fairways will be narrower, the rough more penal, the greens far faster and the par is reduced by one as the par five 6th hole becomes a par four. I don't think you can discount course form but at the same time I don't think you can rely on it.

There are number of players with decent course form, Tim Clark, Charles Howell III and Luke Donald are good examples. Donald is the one that stands out but it's 38 years since a European won the US Open and Luke's not quite a big enough price for me @ around [40.0] to break that run.

As for my other selections, there's a couple of massive outsider picks in the shape of Bart Bryant @ [270.0] and John Rollins @ [650.0] but my main pick is slightly more obvious. The analytical, logical side of me has joined forces with the idealistic, sentimental side and very easily come up with Phil Mickelson, backed a few weeks ago @ [12.0].

He has course form aplenty with three wins in the Buick and his US Open form is rock solid, runner up in 1999, 2002, 2004 and famously in 2006. He's in decent nick and is a San Diego native. In fact he's been playing Torrey Pines since he was a boy so he'll also know it as a hard and fast summer track.

Enough of the pragmatic viewpoint, what a heart-warming story it would be if the people's champ could deliver on his home course 60 years after his national championship was last staged in South California. On that occasion Ben Hogan won his first US Open at Riviera Country Club. Surely Phil Mickelson is too great a player not to win this title? So I hope the stars are aligned and the golfing Gods are concentrating hard enough to banish those horrific Winged Foot memories for good.

Finally, hats off to the organisers. They've been brave enough to configure the draw so that the world's elite play together on Thursday and Friday. There are a number of interesting three-balls, in addition to the world's top three playing together. Numbers four, five and six are grouped together as are seven, eight and nine; and ten, 11 and 12. Also three English players will be enjoying each others company, Poulter, Donald and Casey. As will the big bombers of the tour, with Holmes, Watson and Wetterich all trying to out smash each other.

Unlike other sports it's actually quite rare to see the very top players playing together so I think it's a refreshing decision, though the devilish side of me would have loved to have seen them really go for it with a Fasth, Crane and Sabbatini three-ball. Watching 'Sabba' get angrier and angrier as Fasth and Crane plodded would have been very entertaining.

Selections:

Phil Mickelson @ [12.0]
Tiger Woods @ [4.6]
Bart Bryant @ [270.0]
John Rollins @ [650.0]

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