Betfair | US Open Betting Portfolio: Resurgent Garcia raises hopes of Euro breakthrough

US Open Betting Portfolio: Resurgent Garcia raises hopes of Euro breakthrough

Spain and Sweden to dominate 'Top Continental European' market says Paul Krishnamurty

The UK has a dire record in this major, though I suppose we can take a tiny amount of solace in the fact that we're the only European nation ever to win the US Open. Even with world-class representatives in recent decades such as Seve Ballesteros, Bernhard Langer, Jose-Maria Olazabal and Jesper Parnevik, continental Europe has come up short time and again. However, with the travelling contingent swelling further each year and hailing from ever more countries, it can only be a matter of time.

Representatives from two countries will dominate the 'Top Continental European' market, Spain and Sweden. The long-presumed Spanish heir to Ballesteros and Olazabal, Sergio Garcia, holds by far the most prominent position of any of these in the outright market. A month ago, with his confidence seemingly in freefall, there would have been few tipping Sergio but having bounced back with the biggest strokeplay win of his career in May's TPC Sawgrass, Garcia's odds have tumbled down to [36.0], currently fourth in the betting.

Everything will revolve around Sergio's fortunes on the greens. Its been apparent for years that if the game was played only from tee to green then Garcia would be a serious challenger to Tiger Woods. Unfortunately for him it isn't, which makes his amateur level of putting an enormous handicap. Nevertheless, the US Open is the type of test that slightly negates this disadvantage. Tee to green really is the key on these courses, and Sergio's scrambling brilliance is another massive asset around greens this fast. And at least in a tournament like this, if he does have a poor day with the putter, he's unlikely to be left behind by low scorers.

Sixteen years his senior, Garcia's compatriot Miguel-Angel Jiminez entered the picture when storming to the Order of Merit lead with the best win of his career at the recent BMW Championship. Though never the most fashionable of players, I can see him being a popular trade in three figures once punters consider his majors record. Jiminez played outstandingly well for the last 54 holes of the Masters to make the top-10 having looked a banker to miss the cut, proving once again that he has the tools to deal with a long, gruelling course. And his best ever major came in the US Open eight years ago when finishing second, albeit 15 shots behind Tiger.

There are so many decent Swedish players around nowadays that it can only be a matter of time before one of them wins a major. Since Jesper Parnevik blazed a trail across the Atlantic for Scandinavian golf, the likes of Carl Pettersson and Daniel Chopra have taken up his mantle. Interestingly, that pair have four PGA Tour wins between them despite never doing very much on the supposedly lower grade European Tour.

Good players though they are, neither have the class of Henrik Stenson, Robert Karlsson or Niclas Fasth. The last-named went close in fourth place at Oakmont last year, and has the best record in Majors of these. After an indifferent spell this year though, Fasth has slipped down the Swedish pecking order, with his status reduced to that of a rank outsider at [200.0].

There's no question who the form man is - Robert Karlsson has done just about everything but win recently, finishing no worse than third in his last four events. Few players if any can boast such consistent high-quality form over the couple of months. The challenge for Robert is to reproduce this outstanding golf across the Atlantic for the first time, and he can take great encouragement from eighth place at the Masters, a personal best in the majors. I have to wonder though whether all the value has gone out of backing Karlsson. He was matched as low as [42.0] for the US Open over the weekend, compared to the [600.0] he was trading when tipped up for the Masters by my fellow columnist The Punter.

The other 'big fish' in the continental European market is former World Matchplay champion Stenson, currently trading around [80.0]. Despite building a very big reputation in regular events in both Europe and the US, Stenson has yet to reproduce his best golf in a major. This will be his third crack at the US Open, but there was little in either previous attempt to suggest that he'd developed the all-round expertise to produce his best on these championship courses.