US Open / Steven Rawlings / 15 June 2009 /

Forget Tiger's demolition job at Pebble Beech - that was a one-off - it will be tight at Bethpage, says The Punter.

I've gone back over the last 30 years US Open results to see if there's any value to be had in the Victory Margin market and it's made for interesting reading.

Nobody, bar Tiger Woods, has won by more than three strokes over that period, showing just what a remarkable feat his 15 stroke winning margin at Pebble Beach was back in 2000.

Not surprisingly close calls have been the norm over the last 30 years. The winner has won by three shots on just three occasions and there have been six play-offs, ten single stroke victories and the same number of two shot wins.

Given the evidence it would be folly to consider backing anything above two shots, even given the threat of Tiger mauling the field following his Memorial win.

It may be dangerous to dismiss the possibility of a play-off just because there have only been six in the last 30 years because in total there have been 32 in 107 Championships, but I will dismiss it, for the quirky reason that that's how it ended last year and there's been no back-to-back play-offs recently.

So, is it one shot or two? Well, given Tiger won by three here in 2002 and that two shots looks likely to be the bigger price, that's the way I'm going to play it. I won't be going mad, but a small play on two strokes at anything around [4.5] should provide a bit of value and interest.

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