In the last major, Paul Krishnamurty's weekly trading column banked a big profit by tipping Masters runner-up Angel Cabrera at 150.0149/1. Read his US Open plan here...
Five of the last nine US Open champions begun the week priced at 100.099/1 or more and if you need more convincing that this is a good week to be backing outsiders, consider the words of U.S.G.A. executive director Mike Davis. Regarding the set-up at Merion, he says "I would say that there are probably more players that can potentially win this U.S. Open than in any other U.S. Open venue we go to."
It is hard to argue with that assessment. The lack of length means nobody should be disadvantaged in that respect while the rain will take most of the sting out of the greens, creating a target golf effect that usually serves to level the playing field. As Steve Rawlings explains in his excellent tournament preview, even driving accuracy is over-rated as a guide, because bomber-types may leave driver in their bags.
Whatever the case regarding length, greens in regulation is always a useful guide to a player's wellbeing and that leads me towards Francesco Molinari at odds of 120.0119/1. After catching the eye with some superb golf at the Volvo World Matchplay, Molinari showed further evidence of turning a poor season around by hitting well over 70% of gir in his next two events. I've always had Molinari down as the type for this major and the fact his brother Edoardo won the US Amateur at Merion is another slightly tenuous justification.
The rough is reportedly very penal surrounding Merion's narrow fairways, so accuracy off the tee is going to be essential. 360.0359/1 chance John Huh scores very well in that respect, hitting at least 60% in every event since January and ranking sixth amongst this field over the past three months. He's also in solid form with three recent top-11 finishes, most impressively on his Masters debut.
My third and final selection is a very different type, but at 380.0379/1 the highly capable Robert Garrigus is too big to ignore. He was third in the similarly rain-soaked 2011 US Open at Congressional and has improved since. Garrigus will appreciate the receptive greens and interestingly ranks third in proximity to the hole from less than 125 yards - the range from which he should be attacking the green on at least half a dozen holes on this course.
The trading advice is to stake five units in total, then place lay orders on each player at 16.015/1 and 3.02/1 to bank a profit. If any one of them shortens to the first target, we'll triple our initial outlay.
Updated 2013 Stats: +2.5 units