US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 18 March 2012 /

With the first major of the year always played on the same course there's plenty of history and statistics to go through in an attempt to find the 2012 winner.

Brits have a poor recent record. Aussies even more so.
In an era when the UK boasts the world's top-three ranked players, following this rule defies both the market and basic logic. Nevertheless, Augusta has not been a happy hunting ground recently for Brits, with none of our boys winning since Nick Faldo in 1996. Still, at least our stats compare very favourably to Australia, who have never provided a Masters champion.

Thirty-somethings with plenty of Augusta experience tend to fare best
At 26, Charl Schwartzel rather bucked this trend last year but 11 of the last 20 champions were in their 30s and only Tiger Woods won at a younger age than Schwartzel. A second stat, therefore, that counts against 22 year-old, British, tournament favourite Rory McIlroy and it doesn't bode well for third favourite Phil Mickelson either, who will be bidding to become the first over-40 to win since Mark O'Meara in 1998. The average age during the last 20 years was 32.55.

Debutant winners very rare, champions tend to have plenty of Augusta experience
Champions over the last 20 years had already played an average 8.65 Masters, with only four making fewer than six appearances. Once again Schwartzel and Woods bucked this trend by winning on their second attempt. Unsurprisingly on a layout where course knowledge offers a huge advantage, no debutant has won since 1979. Keegan Bradley backers beware!

Favour multiple winners and proven major champions
Eleven of the last 20 winners were already major champions, of whom nine were winning at least their second Masters title. Even the unlikeliest champions were multiple winners on the European or PGA tours, besides one exception. Zach Johnson had only won once on the PGA Tour, although he did have a couple more to his name on the competitive Nationwide Tour. Otherwise, the least prolific was Angel Cabrera, who had only four previous titles to his name although the Argentinian was hardly short of credentials, having already won a US Open. Of the players currently trading below [100.0], this trend counts against Bradley, Jason Day, Webb Simpson and Rickie Fowler.

Shortlist
If sticking strictly to the above four trends, only five players currently trading below [100.0] meet all the criteria. They are Tiger Woods, Nick Watney, Sergio Garcia, Bubba Watson and Brandt Snedeker. All are multiple winners, in their thirties, making at least their fourth appearance at Augusta. Many more would qualify if considering players currently trading in triple-figures and given that four of the last five Masters winners began the week at well above [100.0], looking for outsiders might well be the best plan.

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