US Masters Odds: Punters plunge on matchplay heroes as the big guns disappoint again

US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 03 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

Mickelson, Harrington, Garcia fail to advance their Masters reputations while question marks surround Tiger, says Paul Krishnamurty. So who did impress at the WGC and can we use that to our advantage when betting ante-post on Augusta?

In the aftermath of the year's first prestige event and with six weeks until the opening major, the Masters betting is beginning to hot up. History and common sense tells us we shouldn't read too much into the WGC Accenture Matchplay result, as that event is different in so many ways, but it's inevitable that there is a big impact on the betting. Along with the forthcoming events at Doral and Bay Hill, last week's result will provide the form narrative going into Augusta.

Already for instance, last week's champ Geoff Ogilvy has seen his price tumble from around [50.0] to just [28.0], and there still may be some way to fall yet. It seems there is an air of confusion amongst golf punters right now, with a vacuum at the top of the game waiting to be filled and question marks surrounding all the most obvious candidates for the biggest events.

None of the top-four did anything to advertise their Augusta claims last week, and in each case the Masters betting reacted accordingly. Most notably, Tiger's odds drifted from [3.8] to [4.1]. After all the hype and expectation, it has to be said Woods' return to tournament golf was something of a damp squib, though I'm loathe to jump to any conclusions just yet. The Matchplay was always going to be an extremely tough comeback event, and next week's WGC event at Doral should offer much greater clues to his wellbeing and form. As he's won three of the last four there, anything other than a win or close defeat will be interpreted as failure, and probably spark a significant drift.

If Tiger was disappointing in Arizona, he wasn't alone. Phil Mickelson may have salvaged a declining reputation with victory at Riviera a fortnight ago, but he still looked anything but convincing in Arizona. His long game remains all over the place, and without significant improvement in the weeks ahead a third Masters title looks highly unlikely. At [13.5] he remains the only other player under 20.0, but has still drifted since the market was opened.

The two leading Europeans also need to buck their ideas up, having both fallen at the first hurdle last week. Sergio Garcia, the subject of much positive speculation last autumn, has yet to fire in 2009. Nor has Padraig Harrington, who will be chasing his third consecutive major at Augusta, but has so far endured a poor campaign. Nevertheless, given their enhanced status from last summer, a return to form for either over the weeks ahead would ensure their odds tumble from their reasonably generous current positions around [23.0].

Until they do though, there must be great mileage in backing some of the others. We may have slightly missed the boat on Ogilvy given the scale of the plunge already seen, though he is defending champion at Doral. Last week's title was his second of the season, and third in World Golf Championships; proving beyond reasonable doubt that this former US Open champion is a man for the big occasion. Another strong week in at Doral, or the Arnold Palmer Invitational in three weeks time, would establish the Aussie as one of Tiger's main rivals and force his odds under [20.0].

The best current value for my money lies with Ogilvy's victim in Sunday's final, Paul Casey. His progress came as no surprise to me, as I've already tipped him already for big things in 2009. He's struck me as a potential Augusta winner ever since finishing sixth on his Augusta debut back in 2004, and top-11s in the last two were perfectly respectable too.

The point with Casey is that he seems to have improved considerably over the last year. Whereas he used to be a talented prospect with a wayward, inconsistent long game, he now looks in total control from tee to green. When the putts drop, he can be devastating. So long as there isn't marked deterioration in the few events between now and Augusta, I can't see him starting at anywhere near the current [46.0] quote. Those odds could halve in a patriotic plunge, so I strongly recommend getting on now.

Who else could shorten if the big guns fail to turn it around in the next few weeks? Well, in short the answer to that is anyone who wins. The most obvious candidates to step into the vacuum are the next generation, Anthony Kim, Camilo Villegas and particularly Rory McIlroy.

In reaching the quarter-finals and losing nothing in defeat to Ogilvy, Rory was outstanding on his US debut. There was more than a hint of Tiger about the way the Belfast teenager came from behind to devastate Hunter Mahan in the last-16. He heads to Florida this week for his first strokeplay event on the other side of the Atlantic, and at [19.0] must be the shortest priced player ever in that situation.

Momentum is gathering behind McIlroy, and if he were to win or go close then these kind of odds will soon become a thing of the past. As would the current [40.0] quote for the Masters. But surely its asking too much to win on his Augusta debut as a teenager. Isn't it?