Masters Betting Day Three: Plenty of big-priced players that could make for great trades

US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 12 April 2008 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty thinks Phil Mickelson has all the credentials to go on and win but thinks the likes of Stephen Ames and Mike Weir are the real value

For long spells last night, Tiger Woods' Grand Slam hopes were hanging by a thread. The slam still doesn't look half the bet it did on Thursday, but a typically tenacious finish kept Tiger on the fringes of contention, seven shots behind halfway leader Trevor Immelman. Or more to the point, four shots behind Phil Mickelson. Having started at [2.5] Tiger is now out to [5.2] having hit a high of [7.4] in-running last night.

As we approach 'Moving Day', the leaderboard is ideally set-up to produce an exciting weekend and the kind of volatile, topsy-turvy market that all Betfarians love to see. All of the nineteen players currently under par and level or better with Tiger must consider themselves to be in contention. And at least a dozen of those would be entirely plausible winners.

All the historical trends and stats point to Mickelson landing a third Masters in five years. Nobody has won the Masters from below 4th place going into Saturday in the last decade, and Augusta remains one of the hardest courses to play 'catch-up' in the world. 15 of the last 20 winners had already won a Major previously. As the other four players who fit the first criteria are Immelman, Brandt Snedeker, Steve Flesch and Ian Poulter - none of whom have even challenged for a Major and who all were available pre-tournament at over 300 - Lefty thoroughly deserves favouritism at [4.5].

Nevertheless, on leaderboards as open as this, there's far better value to be found trading various players in double figures. The way the leaderboard is currently structured, its hard to see anyone running away with it. Mickelson does look very strong, but as we've seen on countless occasions in the past, even when he's in front he tends to give the opposition a chance.

Many players' chances are dependent on the performance of the leading pair. Immelman and Snedeker are both decent PGA Tour players, but neither has ever been in anything like this position before. If one of them hits 70 or better tonight then the jobs of Tiger and the rest of the chasers become that much harder. Alternatively its quite easy to imagine a nervy start where a couple of early bogeys results in the pack bunching up.

Hoping for the latter eventuality, in my view the best betting strategy from here is to get on side with a batch of big-priced players within this contention zone. With Mickelson, Woods and Immelman in single-figures taking out of half the book between them, there is surely trading mileage elsewhere. Having already backed Paul Casey ([22.0] now from [70.0]), and outsider Robert Karlsson ([200.0] from [140.0]), I will now have further trades on Steve Flesch at [40.0], Stephen Ames at [30.0] and former Masters champ Mike Weir at [34.0].

Combined, my bets on these five equate to around [8.]0. The plan is that, should any of them shorten below 4/1 at any stage over the weekend I'll lay back to cover the whole stake. If two or more reach my lay target I'll be guaranteed a profit from this combination of trades.

In what has been miserable tournament so far for my pre-tournament bets, the 3-balls have offered a small amount of respite, with yesterday's win on JB Holmes yielding a further 11 points profit. Part of my reasoning there was that veteran Sandy Lyle was in the match, and I'm opposing another veteran today. Ian Woosnam has performed heroically so far, but was saying on Thursday that he was concerned about his stamina holding out, so this could become a very gruelling weekend. Today's playing partner Johnson Wagner not only enjoys a huge advantage in terms of age and fitness, but also form. Winner of last week's PGA event, Wagner has maintained that level to make the cut on his Augusta debut and looks a steal here at [1.75].

Selections

Outright trades

Stephen Ames @ [30.0]
Mike Weir @ [34.0]
Steve Fleisch @ [40.0]

Advised yesterday - Paul Casey @ [70.0] and Robert Karlsson @ [140.0]

2-BALL

12pts Johnson Wagner to beat Ian Woosnam @ [1.75]